Sunday, November 1, 2020

2020 Pre-Election Vs. 2016 Pre-Election, by Demographic

David Wasserman put together this very nice chart (below) of high quality, live interview average poll results by key demographic that provides a comparison between final pre-election polls in 2016 and this year. This is a useful comparison and makes for some interesting margin and shift comparisons between the two campaigns.
White college: 2016, D+12; 2020 D+18; shift D +6; comment: good!
White noncollege: 2016, D-29; 2020, D-18; shift D+11; comment: even better!
Age 18-34: 2016 D+19; 2020, D+29; shift D+10; comment excellent!
Age 65+: 2016 D-5; 2020 D+10; shift D+15; comment: great!
Black: 2016, D+78; 2020 D+75; shift D-3; comment: meh.
Hispanic: 2016, D+38; 2020 D+26; shift D-12; comment: sad!
It'll be interesting to see how these shifts stack up against good estimates of 2016 and 2020 actual election results by demographic (which, I should note, does not mean the exit polls).
Image may contain: text that says 'Final 2016 Polls 46-41 50-38 June/July 2020 52-40 Demographic Overall Dem-Rep White, college degree White, non-college Hispanic Black 18-34 year olds 65+ year olds Men Women 30-59 61-23 September 2020 51-43 August 2020 51-42 57-38 36-57 56-31 58-38 38-56 57-29 82-7 59-28 50-45 45-46 57-35 83-5 50-31 44-49 40-46 51-37 56-40 36-59 60-32 87-7 59-34 51-46 October 2020 53-42 59-37 38-57 58-31 86-8 60-31 53-43 46-48 60-35 83-9 57-32 50-45 44-48 56-36 Final 2020 Polls 52-42 57-39 39-57 58-32 84-9 60-31 53-43 45-48 58-37 44-50 58-37'
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