Sunday, November 29, 2020

What Happened in Pennsylvania?

We're still figuring it out but I do recommend this detailed piece based on the certified vote results by county in the Philadelphia Inquirer. With all the caveats about interpreting county-level results it is striking the extent to which Biden received positive margin shifts across the state, including in many heavily white working class areas. The only exceptions were in a handful of rural counties and, interestingly, in Philadelphia. The biggest chart in the article (part of which is reproduced below) shows the change in two-party vote share for Trump for every PA county. Since it's two-party data you can derive the two-party margin shift by simply doubling the Trump share shift. The wide distribution of gains is quite apparent--and it all added up to a Biden victory.
Image may contain: text that says 'Erie and Northampton voted for Obama in 2012 and Trump ERIE NORTHAMPTON 10.00 20.00 2016, then shifted enough to flip for Biden 1.35 2.34 ← 50.00 30.00 40.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 45 counties voted for Trump both years but shifted left BERKS CUMBERLAND LUZERNE LANCASTER BEAVER PIKE MONTOUR WASHINGTON UNION YORK WESTMORELAND COLUMBIA LEBANON CARBON BUTLER WAYNE ADAMS WYOMING CRAWFORD CAMBRIA NORTHUMBERLAND WARREN SCHUYLKILL SUSQUEHANNA LYCOMING VENANGO -1.03 -4.10 -2.74- -2.74 -2.19 -0.73 -3.82 4.14 -1.31 -0.91← -2.75- -1.78 -1.21 2.00 -1.50 ← 2.80 -2.89 -1.52← 2.00← -0.64€ 0.26 -2.66 0.68 218- -0.64 -2.28← -0.75€'

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