Wednesday, November 4, 2020

Some (Very) Preliminary Thoughts on the Election

Results aren't all in, the demographic data are iffy and even contradictory between sources but....

1. Biden probably underperformed Clinton among Latinos (black vote less clear, but looking at AP Votecast--I don't trust the exits-- and comparing to 2016 States of Change, margins look stable).
2. This suggests that lumping in Latinos as "people of color" who will cleave to the Democrats simply because they are "anti-racist" is not a useful approach for Dems.
3. Democrats therefore need to shift their offer to Latinos to more bread and butter/upward mobility issues where D positions are a good fit (and what the median Latino voter really wants).
4. Not being able to count on outsize majorities of the Latino vote implies that making inroads among white voters will be key to the Biden coalition going forward. Indeed, that is why he will (likely) be elected president, not due to the nonwhite vote, especially Latinos. This is not just white college voters but also white noncollege voters, where the pro-D shifts appear to have actually been larger.
To be revisited as more data come in.....

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.