Wednesday, November 27, 2019

See, You Were All Worried for Nothing!

That Emerson Poll that showed Trump ahead of Biden by 2 points nationally got a lot of play, partly because it was so different from other results and partly because there were no other national horse race results released for awhile. And maybe partly because people are prone to panic.
But now there are! SurveyUSA just released national trial heat results and they have Biden ahead by 13 points! And in case folks think that maybe this is a "bad" poll and Emerson was a "good" poll, SurveyUSA is rated A and Emerson is rated A-. So, as always, watch out for outliers and focus on the running average (now Biden +10).

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