Monday, November 11, 2019

Could the 2020 Election Be a Blowout?

I personally find that hard to believe. Yet if one believes in the wonder-working powers of Presidential disapproval--which is eminently reasonable--one can make a case. Gregory Kroger looks at the latest Morning Consult state by state approval ratings and notes just how much difficulty Trump is in (as far as I can tell the Morning Consult approval ratings are pretty similar to other sources of state by state approval ratings).
"[W]hat if the 2020 election outcome does not depend on the same swing states as 2016? Yesterday Morning Consult released its state-by-state poll of Trump's job approval/disapproval. The write-up emphasizes the limited effect of the House's impeachment inquiry so far, but the actual data tell a more interesting story. Based on much larger samples per state, Trump has a negative net approval rating (approval - disapproval) in 34 of 51 states (plus DC). This includes "red" states like Alaska, Georgia, Montana, and Utah.
Together, these 34 states (and DC!) total 391 Electoral College votes. If the 2020 election followed this pattern, it would be the largest Electoral College landslide since 1988.
Of course, there are huge caveats.
* It is a year until the election. During the Trump presidency that equates to about 1,000 news cycles. A lot can change.
* Current job approval ratings are he same as voter preferences at the end of a primary election season, convention, and general election. But, then again, neither are head-to-head matchups in November 2019. Some disapproving voters will probably drift back to their party affiliations (looking at you, Utah) but it is plausible that most of the voters who disapprove of Trump will end up supporting the Democratic candidate."
Trump disapproval; there is nothing more important. That is why I have repeatedly said that the top three things the Democratic nominee must do in the 2020 general election are:
1. Convert Trump disapproval into Democratic votes.
2. Convert Trump disapproval into Democratic votes.
3. Convert Trump disapproval into Democratic votes
That's assuming Trump disapproval ratings remain high. Obama in the year prior to his re-election reduced his disapproval ratings dramatically. I suppose it's possible Trump will pull off the same trick. But I'm not seeing any signs of it.

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