Monday, July 15, 2019

The Turnout Myth

No myth is stronger in left-progressive circles than the magical, wonder-working powers of turnout. It's become this sort of pixie dust that you sprinkle over your strenuously progressive positions to brush aside any questions of negative electoral effects from such positions. This quote from Saikat Chakrabarti, AOC;s chief of staff, encapsulates the theory of the case so many progressives hold dear.
"[W]e’ve got a completely different theory of change, which is: You do the biggest, most badass thing you possibly can — and that’s going to excite people, and then they’re going to go vote. Because the reality is, our problem isn’t that more people are voting Republican than Democrat — our problem is most people who would vote Democrat aren’t voting.”
This view, despite how much it warms of the hearts of many progressive activists, has remarkably little empirical support. Take 2018. Turnout in that election was outstanding and the demographic composition of the electorate came remarkably close to that of a Presidential election year. This was due to fewer Presidential dropoff voters and more midterm surge voters.
But despite this stellar turnout performance, the overwhelming majority of the Democrats' improved performance came not from less Presidential dropoff and more midterm surge but rather from voters who voted in both elections and switched their votes from Republican in 2016 to Democratic in 2018. When I say "overwhelming" I mean it: The Democratic big data firm Catalist-- whose data on 2018 are the best available--estimates that 89 percent of the Democrats' improved performance came from persuasion--from vote-switchers--not turnout.
Or take 2016. Analysis using States of Change data indicates that, even if black turnout in that election had matched turnout in 2012, Clinton would have lost the election anyway. On the other hand, if she had merely managed to reduce her losses among white noncollege voters by one-quarter she'd be President today.
But perhaps 2020 will be different, if Democrats can just get nonvoters to the polls in large enough numbers. Then Democrats won't have to worry about persuading Obama-Trump voters or any other voters in the much-derided "swing" category. Wrong! Nate Cohn of the Times brings a massive amount of data to bear on this question and finds the following:
"The 2020 presidential election is poised to have the highest turnout in a century, with the potential to reshape the composition of the electorate in a decisive way.
But perhaps surprisingly, it is not obvious which party would benefit. There are opportunities and risks for both parties, based on an Upshot analysis of voter registration files, the validated turnout of 50,000 respondents to The New York Times/Siena College pre-election surveys in 2018, census data, and public polls of unregistered voters.
It is commonly assumed that Democrats benefit from higher turnout because young and nonwhite and low-income voters are overrepresented among nonvoters. And for decades, polls have shown that Democrats do better among all adults than among all registered voters, and better among all registered voters than among all actual voters.
But this longstanding pattern has become more complicated in the Trump years. The president is strong among less educated white voters, who are also overrepresented among nonvoters....
Nationwide, the longstanding Republican edge in the gap between registered and actual voters all but vanished in 2018, even though young and nonwhite voters continued to vote at lower rates than older and white voters.
At the same time, the president’s white working-class supporters from 2016 were relatively likely to stay home. Voters like these are likeliest to return to the electorate in 2020, and it could set back Democrats in crucial battleground states....A large increase in voter registration would do much more to hurt the president in the national vote than in the Northern battleground states, where registration is generally high and where people who aren’t registered are disproportionately whites without a college degree....
The voters who turned out in 2016, but stayed home in 2018, were relatively favorable to Mr. Trump, and they’re presumably more likely to join the electorate than those who turned out in neither election. In a high-turnout election, these Trump supporters could turn out at a higher rate than the more Democratic group of voters who didn’t vote in either election, potentially shifting the electorate toward the president....."
Cohn's bottom line:
"The danger for Democrats is that higher turnout would do little to help them in the Electoral College if it did not improve their position in the crucial Midwestern battlegrounds. Higher turnout could even help the president there, where an outsize number of white working-class voters who back the president stayed home in 2018, potentially creating a larger split between the national vote and the Electoral College in 2020 than in 2016.
There’s nothing about the composition of nonvoters that means a higher-turnout election would invariably make it easier for Democrats to win the presidency, or for Republicans to keep it."
This makes clear the embedded assumption of the turnout-will-solve-everything crowd. If we polarize the election around our progressive issues, all of our nonvoters will show up at the polls but none of the nonvoters from the other side will. That is truly magical thinking. Democrats who want to win in 2020 should--must--discard this view.
About this website
NYTIMES.COM
Democrats typically gain from a broader electorate in presidential races, but that pattern is not assured in the Trump era.

95 comments:

  1. Thanks for writing such a good article, I stumbled onto your blog and read a few post. I like your style of writing..jogos online 2019
    play Games friv
    school friv

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have read your article, it is very informative and helpful for me.I admire the valuable information you offer in your articles. Thanks for posting it.
      Tangki Panel
      Tangki Fiberglass
      Jual Septic Tank

      Delete
  2. What about the large number of non voters Who might return if either party ever represented their interests. The charts above do not cover many possible voters fed up with the corrupted system. Other less faked out nations have higher participation rates for some reason.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Higher participation rates in other countries have more to do with the election system than that US parties are particularly detached. There's little incentive to vote in obviously blue or red states, whether you agree with the majority in your state or not.

      Delete
  3. Thank you. Very interesting.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I have read your article, it is very informative and helpful for me.land clearing wellington

    ReplyDelete
  5. Superbly written article, if only all bloggers offered the same content as you, the internet would be a far better place. escorts in nyc

    ReplyDelete
  6. Superbly written article, if only all bloggers offered the same content as you, the internet would be a far better place.
    kitchen remodel contractor fort lauderdale fl

    ReplyDelete
  7. Thank you for the awesome post.yeah its really useful kitchen remodel palm beach fl

    ReplyDelete
  8. You have a good point here!I totally agree with what you have said!!Thanks for sharing your views...hope more people will read this article!!!
    termite pest control royal palm beach fl

    ReplyDelete
  9. Thanks for a wonderful share. Your article has proved your hard work and experience you have got in this field. Brilliant .i love it reading.
    kitchen and bath remodeling wellington fl

    ReplyDelete
  10. I think this is one of the most significant information for me. And i’m glad reading your article. But should remark on some general things, The web site style is perfect, the articles is really great : D. Good job, cheers.
    hybrid water heaters nashville

    ReplyDelete
  11. Hello, I have browsed most of your posts. This post is probably where I got the most useful information for my research. Thanks for posting, maybe we can see more on this. Are you aware of any other websites on this subject.
    tree stump removal daytona beach

    ReplyDelete
  12. This post is probably where I got the most useful information for my research.
    kitchen and bath remodelers san diego

    ReplyDelete
  13. אין ספק שהפוסט הזה דורש שיתוף. תודה.
    קבוצת גבאי בעלים

    ReplyDelete
  14. הייתי חייבת לפרגן, תודה על השיתוף.
    סינמה רהיטים

    ReplyDelete
  15. תמשיכו בפרסום פוסטים מעניינים כמו זה. תודה.
    תכשיטי אפולו

    ReplyDelete
  16. רציתי רק לשאול, אפשר לשתף את הפוסט בבלוג שלי?
    טיפולים קוסמטיים

    ReplyDelete
  17. תמשיכו בפרסום פוסטים מעניינים כמו זה. תודה.
    פלאנרז הפקות

    ReplyDelete
  18. פוסט נחמד. חייב לשתף עם העוקבים שלי.
    משטח פעילות לתינוק

    ReplyDelete
  19. תודה על השיתוף. מחכה לכתבות חדשות.
    השקעות בנדלן מניב

    ReplyDelete
  20. כל מילה. תודה על השיתוף, מחכה לעוד פוסטים בנושא.
    מתנה למסיבת רווקות מהכלה

    ReplyDelete
  21. הייתי חייבת לפרגן, תודה על השיתוף.
    הדפסת תמונה על בלוק עץ

    ReplyDelete
  22. כתיבה מעולה, אהבתי. אשתף עם העוקבים שלי.
    התקנת אינטרקום

    ReplyDelete
  23. אין ספק שהפוסט הזה דורש שיתוף. תודה.
    חברת ניהול מוניטין

    ReplyDelete
  24. I really appreciate this wonderful post that you have provided for us. I assure this would be beneficial for most of the people. Thanks for sharing the information keep updating, looking forward to more posts. High Quality Product Images

    ReplyDelete
  25. Attractive component of content. I simply stumbled upon your weblog and in accession capital to claim that I acquire in fact loved account your blog posts. Any way I will be subscribing to your augment and even I success you get admission to consistently quickly.
    hotmail.com login

    ReplyDelete
  26. Great Post!! Thanks for sharing it. I love to play online games and there are few things I want to explain while searching for online blog I go through https://casino.bolaking.net/. It is a very useful website that help to learn online tricks while playing poker and lot more.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Naked URL. is one of the best online gambling sites in Malaysia and has its player’s security at the highest priority in their list.

    ReplyDelete
  28. You can also download the apk form of the Mega888 app here if you wish. To install the app, simply follow the instructions provided in our Downloads tab.

    Mega888 Online Slots

    ReplyDelete
  29. Hi, this article is interesting and nice, kindly check out my website at http://www.linkagogo.com/go/Status?i=108345062&t=Online+Casino+Mala..

    ReplyDelete
  30. Dalam setiap kesempatan olahraga, kemungkinan terjadinya sesuatu tidak akan pernah diketahui, tetapi hal itu dapat diantisipasi, itulah yang dilakukan bandar judi saat mereka menentukan harga sebuah acara. Anda juga perlu menempatkan taruhan Anda dengan biaya sebaik mungkin. Mendapatkan biaya terbaik yang tersedia dapat menjadi perbedaan antara menang dan kalah dalam perjudian uang, dan dengan taruhan gratis amal yang disediakan oleh kebanyakan bandar judi untuk peningkatan indikasi baru, tidak ada alasan untuk tidak memiliki akun dengan semuanya. http://117.53.155.23/

    ReplyDelete
  31. הייתי חייבת לפרגן, תודה על השיתוף.
    בייבי נסט

    ReplyDelete
  32. פוסט מעניין, משתף עם העוקבים שלי. תודה.
    ברוקר לי

    ReplyDelete
  33. BK8casino that meets your needs. BK8 Indon Online gambling in Malaysia is designed to ensure that players have fun and excitement while having a huge victory. However, Malaysia's online casinos are not as big as other countries, but this situation may change. With the latest changes in regulations, the local gaming industry has been experiencing exponential growth. When choosing a casino that suits your needs, you must choose a reputable casino to avoid manipulating platforms and night fraudsters. But even among legitimate operators, there are huge differences. Before deciding to register an account, you need to weigh all the features of a given casino.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Thanks for a wonderful post. Your article has proved your hard work and experience you have got in this field. Brilliant ,nice sharing Lottery Sambad 8 PM

    Check Also

    ReplyDelete
  35. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  36. מעולה. תודה על הכתיבה היצירתית.
    אפיון חווית משתמש

    ReplyDelete
  37. Thank you for your amazing and valuable sharing. As return i would like to share some info with you and here u are, hope u enjoy it.Best Event Manager

    ReplyDelete
  38. Really learn a lot from your post, valuable and useful values. I also would like to share some great tips and idea with you,here u are https://www.letsbuypropertymalaysia.com/razak-city-residence/

    ReplyDelete
  39. Thanks for sharing useful information. Social Media Agency plays a very crucial role to turn business from treat to good.Please visit https://www.tinkersociety.com/
    for more information.

    ReplyDelete
  40. i am browsing this website dailly , and get nice facts from here all the time .

    ReplyDelete
  41. Thanks for sharing such an amazing and touching blog. Really enjoy reading it. Well,if u have free time feel free to visit our websitehttps://www.besteventmanager.com/best-event-planner-kl/ and leave a comment if u are enjoy reading it.

    ReplyDelete
  42. I really appreciate your sharing as return i would like to share some great knowledge with you. Event Organizer KL would teach u how to turn event budget into infinite values and fun

    ReplyDelete
  43. The true challenges of poker matches can be enjoyed within BK8 Casino’s poker rooms. From exciting tournaments to the opportunity of building up legendary player skills from scratch, users are welcome to join or watch as they please. For more info visit on http://117.53.155.23/

    ReplyDelete
  44. פוסט נחמד. חייב לשתף עם העוקבים שלי.
    תמונות על קנבס

    ReplyDelete
  45. Thanks for sharing such a great article, better and useful info then what i get from my own research, if u are interest on email marketing, seo and facebook ads service can look into dmcsolution

    ReplyDelete
  46. Nice sharing, why not check us out to learn about the service that we offer,specialized just for u. Here u are https://www.dmcsolutionshub.com/seo-malaysia/

    ReplyDelete
  47. Thank you so much dear for sharing such an amazing blog.
    Garage door repair North York

    ReplyDelete
  48. Superbly written article, if only all bloggers offered the same content as you, the internet would be a far better place.Well i also would like to share some great knowledge with u guys and hope that u learn a lot from this website https://www.dmcsolutionshub.com/seo-malaysia/

    ReplyDelete
  49. Thanks for such an amazing sharing, why not spend some time and learn great values from reading this amazing website https://www.dmcsolutionshub.com/seo-services/

    ReplyDelete
  50. Thank you so much dear for sharing such an amazing blog.
    stratford management Tokyo

    ReplyDelete
  51. I have been reading a lot of stuff about it. but it is different presented, i loved to read this. keep it up.


    investorsdiurnal.com

    ReplyDelete
  52. חייב להחמיא על הכתיבה. מאמר מצוין.

    swimi.co.il

    ReplyDelete