Tuesday, July 28, 2020

OK, Enough Is Enough

Really, these violent street demonstrations need to stop. They're accomplishing nothing other than giving Trump a gift. Claire McCaskill gets it right (see below).

As does Bob Kuttner:

"Trump, with the aid of Bill Barr, has come up with the diabolically clever ploy of sending his private federal army into cities whose mayors don’t want the help, ostensibly to protect federal property and prevent violence.

Everyone knows this is a sham, intended to provoke more violence and depict Trump as a law-and-order president. But—wouldn’t you know it—the extreme fringe of the far left is playing into Trump’s hands, aided by a few angry poor people smashing downtown windows. Some people dressing up as antifa may even be right-wing provocateurs.

Mayors are caught in this crossfire. Some were the original targets of protests that were mostly peaceful, but with violent fringes. Now, people are in the streets, mad at everybody....

Asking our far-left comrades to exercise some self-discipline is a fool’s errand. The extreme left loves moments like this. As they used to say, it "heightens the contradictions" of the capitalist system, and brings us closer to the revolution.

Read some fricking history, people. Read about the German communists in the early 1930s who confidently declared, "After Hitler, Us!"

So enough already! And I might add, anyone who is participating in this nonsense, or even supporting it, should be ashamed of themselves.

Image may contain: text that says 'Claire McCaskill @clairecmc Anyone who participates in violence or property damage in the context of a protest is disrespecting the legacy of John Lewis and helping Donald Trump. 8:39 AM Jul 27, 2020 Twitter for iPad'

Sunday, July 26, 2020

Florida and the Latino Vote

CNN dropped several state polls over the weekend--AZ, FL and MI--with Biden way ahead in MI and solidly ahead in both FL and AZ. In fact, with the latest Florida polling, 538 now has Biden's lead at 7.1 points in the state, which is the same lead they give Biden in WI and actually a bit larger than his PA lead (6.7). That's really quite amazing.

I was interested to look at the Latino crosstabs in FL. In 2016, States of Change data had Clinton carrying Latinos by 19 points in the state. In the new CNN poll, that's exactly Biden's current lead among FL Latinos. (The latest Quinnipiac FL poll actually has his lead among Latinos a bit higher at 25 points). This is consistent with other polls I've been tracking, where Biden's lead among Latinos is approaching 2016 levels. Sure, the campaign would like bigger leads but I think the trend is good and is bolstering Biden's performance in states like FL.

Image may contain: text that says 'Who's ahead in Florida? An updating vrag 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll's quality sample size and recency JULY26 EADER Biden Biden 2% MAR. 2020 Trump43.1% APRIL MAY JUNE JULY'

Democrats Now Favored to Take the Senate

Forecasting models for Senate outcomes are scarce but handicappers like the Cook Political Report, which tends to be fairly conservative in its assessments, are now making Democrats favorites to take the Senate. Obviously, that's a huge deal. Check out this excellent deep dive on the Senate situation from Jessica Taylor from the Cook Political Report: Note they now consider Iowa, Montana and Georgia (Perdue) as tossups.

"With just over 100 days until Election Day, the political climate appears dire for Republicans across the board. President Trump is the decided underdog against former Vice President Joe Biden in our Electoral College ratings and Democrats could end up expanding their House majority.

That leaves the Senate as Republicans' firewall—the final barrier to unified control for Democrats in 2021. While GOP incumbents are trying to run races independent of the president, if Trump’s polling numbers remain this dismal come November, that’s an unenviable and likely unsuccessful strategy, according to several top party strategists. As of now, Democrats are a slight favorite to win the Senate majority.

“Something remarkable would have to happen for Republicans to still have control of the Senate after November,” remarked one GOP pollster. “It’s grim. There’s just so many places where Democrats either have the upper hand or are competitive in states that six months ago we wouldn’t have considered at risk.”...

Taken together, that’s not just a perfect storm for Democrats, but perhaps a perfect tsunami. “The bottom fell out for us at the end of May and June,” with worsening numbers continuing into July now, one national GOP strategist looking at polls across the map bemoaned.

Ultimately, every day that Trump stubbornly refuses to change course is another day that it becomes increasingly likely he may not only tank his own re-election bid but could be on a kamikaze mission to take the Republican-held Senate down with him. At this point, a net gain of five to seven seats for Democrats looks far more probable than the one to three seat gain that would leave them shy of a majority."

COOKPOLITICAL.COM
With just over 100 days until Election Day, the political climate appears dire for Republicans across the board. President Trump is the decided underdog against former Vice President Joe Biden in our Electoral College ratings and Democrats could end up expanding their House majority.

Saturday, July 25, 2020

Echelon Insights: Biden Up 15 in Likely Voter Survey!

Who are Echelon Insights? They are a *Republican* polling firm and one of the best. I know the two principals, Kristin Soltis Anderson and Patrick Ruffini and can vouch for them as excellent researchers who play with a full deck. So these findings are pretty amazing. Check out the whole deck for more findings and an explanation of their methodology.

https://echeloninsights.com/…/july-verified-voter-omnibus-…/

Image may contain: text that says 'Biden Leads +15; Democrats Hold +14 Advantage in Generic Congressional Ballot Match-Up the2020 presidential election being held today, would you vote election Congress were today make choice, Vote President whom would you vote? Biden+ +15 53% 9% 43% 38% Vote orCoe 7% 31% DefinitelyR Probably ProbablyD DefinitelyD Democratic candidate +14 51% 11% 40% 37% 11% 26% Trump Biden (Unsure:99%) 996) Republican Democrat (Unsure: 296)'

Friday, July 24, 2020

The Collapse of Trump's White Noncollege Vote

As I argued yesterday, observers are underestimating the key role of declining white noncollege margins for Trump. Perhaps that has something to do with the fact that, even with vast improvements, Biden still tends to run a deficit with these voters.

But that's not the right way to look at it. Cutting your deficit in one group can be just as important that increasing your advantage in another group--in fact more important, depending on the size of the group and the magnitude of the change.

Case in point: new Fox News polls have Biden ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania by, respectively, 9 and 11 points. What's the most important driver here? White noncollege voters. In each case, this group should be roughly half of voters in 2020. The Fox polls have Biden's current white noncollege performance in both states at -10. But that compares (using States of Change data) with -29 for Clinton in PA in 2016 and -21 in MI. These huge swings move the vote heavily in the Democratic direction even if Biden is still losing the group overall to Trump in both states.

You cannot understand what's going on in this election without taking this dynamic into account.

FOXNEWS.COM
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in the battleground states of Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania, according to Fox News statewide registered voter surveys.

Thursday, July 23, 2020

Where Has Trump Lost Support Relative to 2016?

David Wasserman has an interesting piece up on the NBC News site on where Trump has bled support from his former coalition. The graphic below is informative though I do think there are some problems with Wasserman's analysis.

His basic take:

"In the wake of a pandemic and the protests following George Floyd's death, voters' support for President Donald Trump has tanked.

His average deficit against Joe Biden in national polls has ballooned from 6 percentage points in March to 9 points in July. In the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, published last week, the former vice president leads Trump 51 percent to 40 percent — larger than his 7-point lead in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll from June.

But a closer look at the cross-tabs of recent surveys yields some surprising findings: Trump is actually performing a bit better with nonwhites than he did against Hillary Clinton in 2016. And the group fueling Biden's polling surge is seniors and white voters with college degrees."

So it's seniors and white college grads, he says. White I agree that both shifts are very important, I have some slight disagreements. First, I think his analysis shorts the importance of the white noncollege vote. The chart below shows white college grads moving Democratic by 12 margin points (+9 to +21) but also shows white noncollege voters Republican margin being compressed from -24 to -18. That's 6 margin points which is not nothing. Moreover, since the white noncollege group is roughly 50 percent larger than the white college group the impact of that 6 point shift is magnified so that the impact on the overall Democratic margin is fairly close between the two groups (white noncollege impact is about 3/4 of the white college impact).

The second point is that his analysis is sensitive to the baseline chosen for 2016. Here he uses the Cooperative Congressional Election Survey (CCES) to compare to his basket of 2020 polls. The CCES is a fine survey but it is not, by itself, the best choice for a comparison. Better, for example are the States of Change estimates which actually combine the CCES data with Census data on vote demographics and actual election results down to the county level. These data when compared to the 2020 polls show a 13 points pro-Democratic shift among white noncollege voters compared to a 14 point shift among white college voters--so roughly the same. But since white noncollege is so much larger a group, the impact of the white noncollege shift is significantly larger.

https://www.nbcnews.com/…/who-s-behind-trump-s-big-polling-…

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Wednesday, July 22, 2020

No Such Thing As Cancel Culture, Eh?

To those who insist, absurdly, that cancel culture does not exist and that the discourse has not been chilled by a fear of being called out for Wrongthink, I offer these new results from a Cato Institute national survey on political expression. Note: for those inclined to discount a survey from Cato, I'd say (1) that's narrow-minded and (2) I personally know Emily Ekins, the political scientist who conducted the survey and she is a top-notch and fair-mined researcher.

"A new Cato national survey finds that self‐​censorship is on the rise in the United States. Nearly two-thirds—62%—of Americans say the political climate these days prevents them from saying things they believe because others might find them offensive. The share of Americans who self‐​censor has risen several points since 2017 when 58% of Americans agreed with this statement.

These fears cross partisan lines. Majorities of Democrats (52%), independents (59%) and Republicans (77%) all agree they have political opinions they are afraid to share.

Strong liberals stand out, however, as the only political group who feel they can express themselves. Nearly 6 in 10 (58%) of staunch liberals feel they can say what they believe. However, centrist liberals feel differently. A slim majority (52%) of liberals feel they have to self‐​censor, as do 64% of moderates, and 77% of conservatives. This demonstrates that political expression is an issue that divides the Democratic coalition between centrist Democrats and their left flank."

https://www.cato.org/…/poll-62-americans-say-they-have-poli…

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