Thursday, March 3, 2022

A Political Arithmetic Lesson

My latest on The Liberal Patriot. It's time for a clear-eyed look at the nonwhite vote, how it's trending and what that implies about Democratic strategy.
"In 2020, Democrats lost 10 points off of their margin among nonwhite voters (Catalist two party vote). While Biden won anyway, that result raised troubling question about the Democrats’ electoral theory of the case.
Here’s why. The overwhelming proportion of voters in the country are white—72 percent in the last election. A reasonable expectation is that that number will go up a bit to 73 percent in 2022, given standard midterm turnout patterns. Since Democrats tend to lose the overall white vote by solid margins, the Democratic electoral theory of the case is based around carrying the much smaller, 27-28 percent of voters who are nonwhite by far larger margins.
Rapidly declining margins among nonwhites obviously call this strategy into question. It may be objected that Democrats still dominate the nonwhite vote and that nonwhites are growing as a share of voters. Well, there’s dominance and then there’s dominance—a change from overwhelming to merely very strong can make a significant difference. Take 2020. In that election, Democrats’ declining dominance of the nonwhite vote meant that, despite constituting a larger share of the vote, nonwhites actually contributed less to the Democrats’ overall margin than they did in 2016.
Since 2020, the Democratic dominance of nonwhite voters has continued to decline. The latest manifestation of this was the turnout patterns in last Tuesday’s Texas primaries which suggested continuing movement to the GOP among Texas Hispanics."
Read the rest at The Liberal Patriot--and subscribe, it's free!

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