Tuesday, August 18, 2020

On Wisconsin

Biden's lead in Wisconsin--currently the tipping point state in a lot of forecasts--has been running a steady 6-7 points in the 538 average. The latest nonpartisan WI poll, from Morning Consult, has his lead at 6 points and is worth a look for the breakdown on the horse race question. Among other things it shows a swing in Biden's favor of 7-8 margin points (relative to States of Change data) among both white college and white noncollege voters in the state. That's game.

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