Sunday, April 12, 2020

The Most Important Trend in American Politics: The Disappearing Trump Bump

Presidential approval isn't everything. But probably more than any single metric you could look at, it shapes electoral outcomes. Therefore, when Trump's approval rating went up modestly as the COVID-19 pandemic hit, people noticed--though it was modest and seemed to have relatively little effect on trial heat measures. But now, even that bump seems to be disappearing fast See the charts below, national from 538 and two swing states, Wisconsin and Florida, from Civiqs data.

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