Monday, April 6, 2020

Florida: Ain't No Sunshine When It's Gone

That could be Donald Trump, paraphrasing the late, great Bill Withers, if the new University of North Florida poll is foreshadowing his fate in the Sunshine State. The UNF poll finds Biden ahead of Trump by 6 points, 46-40, including strong leads in the swing Central Florida regions of Tampa and Orlando. Trump's lead among white voters in the state is a mere 10 points, catastrophically low compared to his 22 point margin in 2016.
It's worth nothing that the poll also shows Trump's approval rating on handling the coronavirus pandemic underwater at 45 percent approval/53 percent disapproval (including 43 percent strong disapproval). Perhaps Trump is not as immune from political harm from his dreadful handling of the crisis as many Democrats suppose.
It is fair to say that Trump's chances of re-election in November without Florida are quite poor. Of course, he will pull out all the stops to prevail in the state again, but these data suggest h e has a real challenge on his hands.

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