Thursday, March 19, 2020

Nuggets from the Florida, Illinois and Arizona "Exit Polls"

There were no conventional exit polls for the March 17 states, Florida, Illinois and Arizona. However, the National Election Pool (NEP), which normally conducts the exit polls, did conduct telephone surveys in these states and administer their standard instrument. In addition, AP VoteCast. which conducts large-scale election surveys now used in lieu of exit polls by many news organizations, fielded surveys as well.
So there is some data to look at. Here are some nuggets I found interesting.
Florida:
1. Biden carried Hispanics 57-31 according to VoteCast (NEP did not report Hispanic results in the state). Among Hispanic subgroups, Biden carried Cubans 57-36, Puerto Ricans 62-33 and other Hispanic 54-34.
2. VoteCast says Sanders carried 18-29 year olds by a comparatively modest 16 points and under 45 by just a point.
3. Both the VoteCast and NEP surveys say Biden crushed Sanders among white noncollege voters, VoteCast by 59-22 and NEP by 63-15
Illinois
1. Sanders carried young voters by a landslide in both surveys. Hispanics, according to VoteCast, went for Sanders 50-39.
2. Both surveys had Biden way ahead among white noncollege voters 59-31 (VoteCast) and 63-32 (NEP).
Arizona
1. Hispanics were very close in both surveys; NEP had Biden ahead by a point and VoteCast had Sanders ahead by 4 points.
2. VoteCast had Sanders way ahead among young voters (NEP did not report the 18-29 year old vote) by 69-15.
3. The NEP survey gave Biden a 30 point advantage among white noncollege voters, while VoteCast had Biden ahead by 16.
Conclusion: Biden has become the white noncollege candidate and now shows much more strength among Latinos. Young voters are by and large sticking with Sanders though the Florida results were much better for Biden among this group.
Food for thought. We shall see what happens next, not so much on the race for the nomination, which is basically settled, but in how Biden can shore up his weak points as move toward the general election. Sanders clearly has a role to play here. Will he play it?

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