Thursday, May 16, 2019

Trump Approval in the States and Trump Vulnerability

Nathaniel Rakich has an interesting post up on 538 where he compares Trump's net approval in a state to the partisan lean of a state. He then computes a score showing how much better or worse Trump's net approval is than would be expected from the partisan lean of the state (i.e., if the partisan lean of a state is R+5 you would expect Trump's net approval in the state to also be +5.)
Ignoring Rakich's cute name for the metric (Popularity Above Replacement President or PARP), the interesting thing here is what the metric tells us about swing states and how they may be vulnerable for Trump in 2020.
Unsurprisingly,, the Rustbelt three (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) all look quite accessible for the Democrats. Less so, but still intriguing are Iowa and Ohio. In the southern tier of swingish states, Arizona clearly stands out in Trump vulnerability, followed by Florida and North Carolina and then Georgia and Texas as more of a stretch.
Interesting stuff. It underscores the top three things the Democratic nominee must do in the 2020 general election.
1. Convert Trump disapproval into Democratic votes.
2. Convert Trump disapproval into Democratic votes.
3. Convert Trump disapproval into Democratic votes.
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In recent months, President Trump’s approval and disapproval ratings have been unimpressive, stubbornly stuck around 42 percent and 53 percent, respectively, ac…

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