Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Biden in Pennsylvania

A new Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania voters has Biden looking very, very good, with an impressive 11 lead over Trump in a general election trial heat. On the demographics of his support, I call your attention to not just Biden's huge lead over Trump among white college voters but his comparatively small deficit (-18) among white noncollege voters. Our States of Change data have Clinton losing white noncollege voters in PA in 2016 by 29 points, which accounted for about three quarters of the roughly 6 point swing against her relative to Obama's showing in 2012. If Biden could hold the white noncollege deficit to 18 points in PA in the general election, that would actually be somewhat better than Obama did in 2012 and should be enough to take the state easily.
So a good showing for Biden. He's also the choice of Democratic primary voters by 39-13 over his nearest competitor (Sanders) to be nominee and by 61-6 over his nearest competitor (again Sanders) as the most likely to be able to defeat Trump.

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