Saturday, November 3, 2018

House Forecasting Check-In: Three Days To Go!

Almost there! Time for a last check-in on the various House forecasting models. All the models have become relatively bullish on the Democrats' chances, reflecting the most recent trends, which have erased the slight downturn in some of the models after the Ford/Kavanaugh hearing.
538:
probability Democrats take House: 86 percent
predicted Democratic seat gain: 39
predicted Democratic popular vote margin: 8.9
Economist:
probability Democrats take House: 86 percent
predicted Democratic seat gain: 34
predicted Democratic popular vote margin: 8
Crosstab/G. Elliot Morris:
probability Democrats take House: 79 percent
predicted Democratic seat gain: 34
predicted Democratic popular vote margin: 8.6
CBS Battleground:
probability Democrats take House: no estimate
predicted Democratic seat gain: 31
predicted Democratic popular vote margin: no prediction
CNN
probability Democrats take House: no estimate
predicted Democratic seat gain: 31
predicted Democratic popular vote margin: no prediction
The average here works out to a 34 seat gain for the Democrats, right about where Charlie Cook and a number of other observers have it. The possibility remains of course of much smaller or much larger gains for the Democrats, with much larger perhaps being bit more likely than much smaller (i.e., below the 23 seat threshold).

No comments:

Post a Comment