Our new report on Demographic Shifts and the Future of the Trump Coalition will be published Monday in conjunction with our States of Change conference at the Bipartisan Policy Center. We discuss 17 different simulations of electoral outcomes through 2036 under varying assumptions about turnout and voting preferences (for example, if the education divide among whites continues to widen as it has).
We provided an advance copy to Dan Balz of the Post. His article based on the report will be published in the Sunday paper and is now available online. The report itself will bee available on line on Monday.
Balz's article is a good summary of some of the main themes of the report:
"The authors ran a series of simulations for elections between 2020 and 2036, using different assumptions about the shape of the electorate, while also trying to estimate how tweaks or shifts in levels of support for Republican or Democratic candidates would affect the popular vote in the states and, therefore, the electoral college and the national totals.
One conclusion is that the country should be braced for repeats of what has happened twice in the past five presidential campaigns — a popular vote outcome different from the electoral college result. “This report finds quite a few future scenarios could mimic the result of the 2016 election — a Democratic in the popular vote with a Republican win in the electoral college,” the authors write. (The same thing happened in 2000.)"