Friday, October 20, 2017

Today's Useful Data: Polls Consistent with Solid Northam Lead

Panic descends in Democratic circles whenever Gillespie seems close to Northam in the Virginia governor's race. One poll even showed Gillespie ahead by a point. But this is not the right way to look at the race. As Harry Enten points out at 538:
With an average Northam lead of about 7 points, sampling error alone suggests that some polls should find Gillespie up by a little and some polls should find Northam with double-digit advantages. That’s exactly what we’re getting.
So relax. Northam could certainly lose this race but there's nothing in the polling data that is not consistent with a solid Northam advantage at this point.

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