Friday, December 4, 2020

Has the Populist Right Peaked?

Well, perhaps temporarily; I am not persuaded that the current lull will last. Still, a lull is better than continued advance and it at least creates the possibility that the center-left can get its act together and make the pushback more permanent. We shall see. Anyway, here are some interesting data from Europe collected by the excellent site Europe Elects that show how the situation has evolved there since 2019.
"Donald Trump has lost the US Presidential election, with many swing states having certified their respective results. The political earthquake of an incumbent President of the most powerful country in the world losing an election—as the polls had long suggested—seems to have ripple effects across the Atlantic on parties such as Italian Lega Nord (ID) and the AfD (ID) in Germany. The upward trend of such parties has, at least temporarily, halted. But even beyond Trump there are indicators that the right has reached, for now, a zenith.
Europe’s political right organises overwhelmingly around two major EU Parliament groups: The ID Group on the one hand, which includes figures like Marine Le Pen and Matteo Salvini; and the ECR Group around the Polish government party PiS and the Swedish Democrats."
Image may contain: text that says '၁ Click here if the visualisation does not show Ranks Seats European Parliament Seat Projection Timeline 2019-2024 2019 Election Oct-19 220 seats Mar-20 Jan-21 Jun-21 200 seats Nov-21 Apr-22 Sep-22 Feb-23 180 seats Jul-23 195 Centre-rightEPP Dec-23 May-24 160 seats 140 seats 120 seats 136 Centre-lefts 100 seats 80 seats 95 LiberaLRE 60 seats 40 seats 73 Right-wing 6৮ National-conservativeE 55 Left-wing GUE/NGL 48 Greens/ EFA 20reate 23 Non Inscrits'

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