Monday, December 9, 2019

Looking Past Iowa and New Hampshire

538 just published a couple of articles on primary polling data that allow us to look beyond Iowa and New Hampshire. The first is on the first four states and the second is on Super Tuesday and beyond.
The article on the early states shows that Buttigieg is just slightly ahead in both Iowa and New Hampshire, with Warren, Sanders and Biden in that order closely bunched behind. Of course, the theory of these first two states is not that they yield a lot of delegates but rather that winning there can provide forward momentum for future primaries. Candidates whose names are not Biden better hope that that's the case because if outcomes in these first two states don't have much impact on the race, Biden is in a very strong position gong forward. The 538 article shows that Biden is solidly ahead in Nevada and way ahead in South Carolina.
Moreover, the second 538 article shows just how strong Biden looks at this point for Super Tuesday and beyond. For Super Tuesday, he leads in Texas and North Carolina and, while polling is sparse, looks like the favorite in Tennessee, Alabama, Virginia and Arkansas. (California is a jump ball and Warren looks good in Massachusetts and Minnesota). Beyond Super Tuesday, Biden is also leading in Michigan, Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, New York and Pennsylvania.
So....if Iowa and New Hampshire lose their mojo this time around it could get late early for Biden's opponents.

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