Tuesday, June 18, 2019

They May Love Trump at His Rally, But the Rest of Florida--Not So Much

With Trump kicking off his re-election campaign with a boffo rally in Orlando, FL, it's a good time to check in on how the Prez is doing in the Sunshine State. Felicitously, Quinnipiac has just released a new Florida poll that allows us to assess this.
According to the poll, Trump is doing rather poorly. In a matchup with possible Democratic nominee Joe Biden, he is behind by 9 points, 50-41. Lest this bedeemed too much of an outlier, Trump was behind by a similar margin in Florida in the leaked Trump campaign polls (which he claims don't exist; maybe he'll claim Quinnipiac doesn't exist either).
The internals of the poll are of considerable interest. Comparing the Quinnnipiac results with the States of Change results from 2016, Biden runs somewhat ahead of Clinton among Hispanics, but what really drives Biden's current showing against Trump is superior performance among Florida whites. Here are the comparisons:
All whites: Clinton, -22; Biden, -10
College whites: Clinton, -7; Biden, -1
Noncollege whites: Clinton, -30; Biden, -19
Given that whites will probably be close to two-thirds of Florida voters in 2020 and that noncollege whites will probably be about two-thirds of white voters, these are impressive results of potentially great significance.
Will these results hold? Who knows, but it seems like a sure bet that Trump will be holding many more rallies in Florida.

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