Wednesday, March 6, 2019

Democratic Shifts Between 2016 and 2018 Occurred Almost Everywhere

My friend and frequent co-author Bill Frey had an excellent article out on voting shifts between 2016 and 2018, based on county-level data. By comparing Presidential voting in 2016 to House voting in 2018 on a county by county (and also state by state) basis, he finds the following:
"[T]he Democratic wave is all encompassing: 83 percent of the voting population lived in counties where support for Democrats has improved since 2016. This increased Democratic support was not confined to traditional Democratic base counties. It occurred in suburbs, smaller metropolitan and rural counties, and most noticeably, in counties with concentrations of older, native-born and white residents without college degrees. Moreover, at the state level, enough states flipped from Republican majorities in the 2016 presidential election to Democratic majorities in the 2018 House elections to project a 2020 Democratic Electoral College win....
in a vast majority of counties—even in those won by Republicans in 2018—more voters favored Democrats in 2018 than in 2016....In a majority of counties (2,445 of 3,111)—irrespective of whether the final 2018 vote favored Republican or Democratic candidates—there was a positive D-R margin shift between 2016 and 2018 (meaning either a greater Democratic advantage or a smaller Republican advantage)....
Counties with [the biggest shifts in} D-R margins tend to have “Republican leaning” attributes, when compared with all counties: greater shares of non-college whites and persons over age 45, and smaller shares of minorities and persons who are foreign born. This occurs among both Democratic-voting and Republican-voting counties, and suggests that there was a shift toward Democratic support in counties that helped elect Donald Trump in 2016...
Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona...[which went for Trump in 2016] registered Democratic advantages in their 2018 House elections. If those results hold for the 2020 election, the Democratic candidate would receive 293 electoral votes—enough to win the presidency Moreover, in all but two [of the 50} states, 2018 House D-R margins showed more positive or less negative values than those for the 2016 presidential race—both in “red” Republican states and in “blue” Democratic states "
Fascinating stuff, with some interesting political implications. And copiously illustrated with maps, charts and tables! Check it out.
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Contents: More than four-fifths of 2018 voters reside in counties with rising Democratic support Increased 2018 Democratic support occurred in suburbs, small metros, and rural areas. Counties with …

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