Tuesday, May 29, 2018

Fearless Forecasting Department: Democrats Have a 2-in-3 Chance of Taking the House

Says who? Well, says the Economist magazine. They've built quite a sophisticated 435 district model that is explained remarkably clearly in a lengthy methodological post on their site. But here's the latest forecast which gives the 2-in-3 estimate for the Democrats. Too optimistic? Maybe; stay tuned for rival models and the always exciting methodological polemics between them!
Our predictive model for November’s elections for the US House of Representatives, updated daily

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