Thursday, January 2, 2020

Fun With the Electoral College!

I highly recommend this article by Seth Moskowitz on Sabato's Crystal Ball. Moskowitz opens with a nice map that shows the margin in percentage point terms for every state and then proceeds to offer a wide variety of possible paths for a Democratic defeat of Trump. Importantly, he shows, for each of these paths, the net votes that would have to shift in each state and the relationship between these shifts and the amount of EVs that would be gained, generating a measure of the "cost" or difficulty of attaining EVs from a particular state..
All your favorites are here: MI, PA and WI! MI, PA and AZ! MI, NC and PA! And don't forget FL and MI. Then, for you pure Sunbelt path fans, there's also AZ, GA an NC. Difficult. And TX by its lonesome. Very difficult..
Anyway, very useful. Clip 'n save this one kids!

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