Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Yes Indeed, Trump Really Is Quite Vulnerable

In my previous post, I wrote about how the Democrats could absolutely, for sure blow the opportunity to beat Trump if they don't run a smart, relentless, laser-focused campaign with no unforced errors.
'The other side of this is how very vulnerable Trump is, which would make it a great pity to mess this one up. We have a raft of new polling data that testify to that vulnerability. Consider:
* In the new CNN poll, Trump has an approval rating of just 39 percent (and is now running around 41 percent in the 538 running average). His strong disapproval vastly outweighs his strong approval, much more so than for recent incumbents. Even his approval rating on the economy is dropping, from +15 (approval minus disapproval) to only +1 today.
As for his "re-elect number", those who who say he deserves re-election, it is dreadful: just 39 percent of registered voters, compared to 58 percent who say he does not deserve re-election. As Harry Enten notes:
"The percentage of voters who said Obama didn't deserve reelection on this question was usually under 50%. Even at its height, it never got above the mid-50s. For Trump it has never gotten below the high 50s.
The same holds true when you at George W. Bush's reelection ratings. They were usually below 50% at this point in the campaign. They never got above the mid 50s even at their peak.
Perhaps more troubling for the president is these generic questions seem to be matching up with what we're seeing in the ballot test against potential Democratic contenders. As I noted previously, Trump's deficit against them is higher than it's been for any president since World War II."
Note particularly Trump's performance among white noncollege voters, who he probably needs to carry be greater margins than he did in 2016 (+31 points). In the CNN poll, he is at just + 8 among these voters on the re-elect question (deserves minus not deserves).
* in the new Washington Post poll, Biden crushes Trump in a 2020 trial heat. Trump also loses to other possible Democratic candidates:
"The new poll tested Trump against five potential general election challengers, and in four of those cases, the president trails, significantly or modestly. He does worst against former vice president Joe Biden, but also runs well behind Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), and slightly behind Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.). Against South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Trump is numerically behind but the gap is within the range of sampling error.....
Of all the Democrats tested against Trump, Biden currently does the best, aided by significant support from women. He is ahead of the president by 15 points, 55 percent to 40 percent, among registered voters. Among all adults, he is at 54 percent and Trump is at 38 percent."
It really would be a shame to blow this one.

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