Saturday, February 23, 2019

Trump Approval Ratings in 2020 Swing States

Gallup has issued its average approval ratings by state for 2018, based on their very large sample tracking poll. It's definitely worth a look. Short story: in states that are likely to matter in 2020, Trump's approval ratings are pretty bad. Doesn't mean he can't win of course, but approval ratings are a pretty good guide to potential support, so it definitely suggests a challenge for the incumbent President.
Caveats: these are average 2018 ratings; Trump may be higher across the board by November, 2020 (or not, his approval have varied within a very narrow band throughout his Presidency). He is already a bit higher this year than he was at the end of 2018. Also, Gallup approval ratings are of all adults not registered or likely voters. This may be of particular significance in a state where there are large numbers of adult noncitizen Latinos or Asians.
Swing states from low to high Trump approval:
Colorado, Minnesota 39
Nevada, Virginia 40
Texas 41
Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin 42
Arizona, Florida 43
Georgia 44
Iowa, North Carolina 45
Ohio 48
Interesting! I was particularly struck by the "Rustbelt 3"--Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin--who put Trump over the top in 2016, all being at exactly 42 percent.
President Donald Trump's job approval averaged 50% or higher in 17 states in 2018 but was below 40% in 16 states.

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