Friday, December 14, 2018

What Really Happened in Georgia in 2018?

Catalist has released their detailed data on the Georgian gubernatorial election and there are many findings of interest.
"In 2018, Abrams lost Georgia by only 1 point, outperforming Hillary Clinton by almost 4 percentage points, but falling just short of victory. How did the Abrams campaign get so close to winning a state that just a few years ago observers had thought was lost to Democrats for the foreseeable future?....
* Converting groups of voters to support her who had previously voted for third-party candidates in 2016
* Mobilizing a growing Democratic-leaning coalition of young people, voters of color, and suburban voters to match or come close to Presidential levels of voter turnout in a midterm year.
* Growing her support among groups that swung towards Democrats in 2016: women voters, and white voters who live the areas surrounding Atlanta."
Other interesting findings:
* Vote share increases relative to the 2014 midterm were particularly striking among young voters. 18-29 year olds were 8 percent of voters in 2014 but 13 percent this year.
* The biggest margin shifts toward the Democrats compared to the 2016 Presidential were among whites under 45: an 11 point shift among 18-29 year old whites and a 12 point shift among 30-44 year old whites.
* Black vote share was actually higher in this election than in the 2016 Presidential and also higher than in the last midterm.
* The shift toward the Democrats was actually larger among white noncollege voters (+6) than among white college voters (+1). Unfortunately, Abrams still lost white noncollege voters by 57 points, despite this shift.
* Abrams carried urban voters by 65 points, suburban voters by 16 points, but lost rural voters by 44 points.
Note: Catalist does not attempt to estimate any effects due to voter suppression activities, so that is not included in their analysis.
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Note: this post is the first in a series of state-specific posts analyzing the 2018 election using the Catalist voter registration…

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