Catalist has released their detailed data on the Georgian gubernatorial election and there are many findings of interest.
"In 2018, Abrams lost Georgia by only 1 point, outperforming Hillary Clinton by almost 4 percentage points, but falling just short of victory. How did the Abrams campaign get so close to winning a state that just a few years ago observers had thought was lost to Democrats for the foreseeable future?....
* Converting groups of voters to support her who had previously voted for third-party candidates in 2016
* Mobilizing a growing Democratic-leaning coalition of young people, voters of color, and suburban voters to match or come close to Presidential levels of voter turnout in a midterm year.
* Growing her support among groups that swung towards Democrats in 2016: women voters, and white voters who live the areas surrounding Atlanta."
Other interesting findings:
* Vote share increases relative to the 2014 midterm were particularly striking among young voters. 18-29 year olds were 8 percent of voters in 2014 but 13 percent this year.
* The biggest margin shifts toward the Democrats compared to the 2016 Presidential were among whites under 45: an 11 point shift among 18-29 year old whites and a 12 point shift among 30-44 year old whites.
* Black vote share was actually higher in this election than in the 2016 Presidential and also higher than in the last midterm.
* The shift toward the Democrats was actually larger among white noncollege voters (+6) than among white college voters (+1). Unfortunately, Abrams still lost white noncollege voters by 57 points, despite this shift.
* Abrams carried urban voters by 65 points, suburban voters by 16 points, but lost rural voters by 44 points.
Note: Catalist does not attempt to estimate any effects due to voter suppression activities, so that is not included in their analysis.
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.