Sunday, January 7, 2018

It's the Governors' and Legislative Elections, Stupid!


Sure,  control of the House is very important and the Democrats have an excellent chance to get that back in 2018. More difficult, but not out of the question, would be the Senate. 

But let's face it, 2018, even with very favorable results in the House and the Senate, is not going to be the start of a new progressive era. No, that is really a 2020's thing when President Trump is defeated and Democrats have enough strength in the states to dominate the next round of redistricting, thereby allowing them to translate their underlying political support into actual political victories. 

That's why the most significant results of the 2018 election may well be those for state, not federal, offices. Here's what's at stake:

  • 36 governors' races, 26 of which are currently in Republican hands. And of the 26 Republican-held seats, 13 are in states that Obama won in at least one of his Presidential victories (pictured above). 
  • At least half of state Senate seats in 42 states (in 15 of these states, the entire Senate is up).
  • Every state House seat in the overwhelming majority of states.
These results will set the playing field for state elections in 2020 and the redistricting thereafter. Procedures in states vary but the typical setup is for the state legislature to be in charge of the actual redistricting with the governor having veto power. In 34 states, the governor who will be in office for the upcoming redistricting will be elected this year (two were elected last year, which the Democrats bagged) and in 30 states half or more of state senators who will preside over the process will be elected this year

Of course, 2020 will be important too, but the revolution, so to speak, starts this year. So if you're wondering where to put your energy and/or money, you could do worse than throwing it at competitive legislative and govenors' elections in key states. And in case you want some hard data on state legislative districts, the Presidential results in a given Republican-held district always provide useful information about the potential competitiveness of the district.

Historical and model-based results suggest this could be a very good year indeed for the Democrats at the state level. Let's make it happen.

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