Friday, November 24, 2017

Will Doug Jones Win in Alabama?

Beats me, though it is certainly the case that Roy Moore has been hurt by all the revelations about his past history. Harry Enten on 538 notes that:
[W]e can see how the accusations were a game changer by looking at surveys from five pollsters who took polls both before Nov. 9 and since. Moore’s position fell, on average, by 9 percentage points from before the allegations to after. 
That's good but it's also the case that the RealClearPolitics average shows Jones up by a mere .8 percentage points. That's a pretty meager lead.

The dominant force in the outcome will probably be white noncollege voters. They were roughly half of 2016 voters in Alabama and supported Trump by an astonishing 77 points (87-10). If their turnout is low relative to black voters on December 12 and if Jones can also take a big bite out of that lopsided GOP lead from 2016, he could definitely pull this out. If not, we'll be looking at (shudder) Senator Roy Moore.

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