Friday, December 20, 2019

Against Degrowth

Today many on the left argue for the necessity for a radically-restructured economy linked to ecological sustainability. The idea here is that the pursuit of economic growth is leading to an “uninhabitable earth”, as David Wallace-Wells has put it, thereby threatening the continued existence of humanity. Growth should be subordinated to solving the climate crisis and if that leads to no or negative economic growth, that is the price we must pay. A capitalist economy based on growth must be replaced with a “degrowth” economy focused on simple, healthy communities, efficient resource use and the elimination of wasteful consumerism.
Naomi Klein, author of the hugely influential 2015 book, This Change Everything: Capitalism Vs. the Climate, in a New Statesman essay advocates “radical and immediate de-growth strategies in the US, EU and other wealthy nations…[W]e happen to have an economic system that fetishises GDP growth above all else … The bottom line is that an ecological crisis that has its roots in the overconsumption of natural resources must be addressed not just by improving the efficiency of our economies but by reducing the amount of material stuff we produce and consume.”
Degrowth is probably the worst idea on the left since communism. People want more, not less; they don’t object to growth, they object to where the benefits of growth have mostly gone. In short, they want abundance, not societally-mandated scarcity. And not only will people not accept artificial scarcity, but the transition to a green economy is really only possible in a high-growth context, where the requisite (and expensive) technological innovation and infrastructural development—as, for example, in a Green New Deal--can be supported.
And what is true for publics in advanced countries is doubly true for those living in the developing world. The radical drop in extreme poverty from 44 percent in 1990 to under 10 percent today has been widely noted. Less well-know, a Brookings study has shown that the global middle class has doubled in size from about a quarter of the world’s population in 2000 to just over half today. These changes are attributable to economic growth, even if the benefits of economic growth in developing countries, as in developed countries, have been distributed unequally. It is highly implausible that these populations want less growth when they’ve already benefitted so much from the growth they have seen. What they really want is more and more equally-distributed growth and, ultimately, the lives of abundance they see many people around the world already living.
This is why the left should wake up and realize that degrowth and related doctrines are a trap. Capitalism once again—as it did when democracy and then the welfare state got on the social agenda--needs the left’s help to move forward to a better model. That model is a market-based society of mass abundance, not austerity.
Consider: Capitalism since the 1970’s has performed poorly. This has partially been because of slow growth across the Western world. But it is also because of the absurdly unequal distribution of gains from that growth. This has caused the famous skyrocketing incomes and wealth of the top one percent. But it has also resulted in the emergence of a mass upper middle class for the first time in history.
If you look at what has happened to the middle class in terms of living standards, this is clearly the case. The so-called shrinking of the middle class is mostly due to elements of the middle moving up to a significantly higher living standard, not downward mobility. For these upper middle class families and individuals, their lives are now a reasonable approximation of abundance. They want for very little in material terms and are able to take advantage of the cornucopia of entertainment, information, travel and health options that modern life affords.
But that’s leaving a lot of people behind. This is not because capitalism has to work this way. It is because capitalism is working this way. The enormous potential of today’s market economies to grow faster and lift much larger sections of the population to an abundance level is being squandered by today’s dysfunctional neoliberal model of capitalism. Evidence for this dysfunction has been accumulating for decades, underscored by the financial crash and great recession of 2007-2009 and ratified by subsequent poor economic performance and populist upsurge.
There is no good excuse for this continuing poor performance. Current policies reflect the priorities of those at the top of the system and the conservative economic views that dominate the political right. These policies are getting in the way of unleashing the abundance-producing potential of the third industrial revolution, which has been only limping along since its beginnings in the late 20th century. To take maximum advantage of the new information and networking technologies—not to mention stopping climate change--large scale action is required to develop new infrastructure, turbocharge scientific innovation, massively raise educational levels and spread economic dynamism beyond large metropolitan areas. That requires a decisive break from austerity policies and a renewed commitment to government as an agent of social and economic transformation.
That is the left’s assignment. Once again they are called upon to make capitalism live up to its potential and move it to a new stage. The assignment is not just to defend and, where possible, extend the welfare state (though this is important). The assignment is not just to promote equal access to the benefits of neoliberal capitalism (though this is important). The assignment is to create something new, an abundant life for the mass of people in society.
This is what today’s voters really want. Not a bigger, more democratic welfare state grafted onto neoliberal capitalism but rather a fundamental change where people’s opportunities and quality of life are not walled in by scarcity. They want not just a better life, but a really good life, which they now realize is possible. When early industrial capitalism reached the point where it could support democratic systems, it look the left to make it possible. When the capitalism of the second industrial revolution reached the point it could support generous welfare states, it took the left to make it happen. And now that postindustrial capitalism has reached the point where it potentially could support mass abundance, it will also take the left to make that happen.
It’s a daunting assignment but the left will be far better off embracing that as goal, rather than the chimera of a degrowth economy. As will the world as a whole.

Thursday, December 19, 2019

Some Things That Biden Is Getting Right

I thought Biden had a solid debate, which should help him, as did Klobuchar, which may help her in Iowa, her make-or-break state..
538 released some pre-debate polling and Biden already looked--at least on the national level--to be in very good shape. He had the highest favorability rating of the candidates on stage and had a strong lead on the candidate likely primary voters were at least considering voting for. Likely primary voters also said, by a lopsided 64-36 margin, that they preferred a candidate who had a good chance of beating Trump over a candidate who agree with them on the issues (see graphic below). And Biden had a strong lead over the other candidates on who would be most likely to beat Trump if he or she were the nominee (see graphic below).
Today also saw the release of a lengthy Politico profile by Ryan Lizza on Biden's advisers. The piece provides useful information on some of the things Biden seems to be getting right about this campaign.
"A year ago, Biden’s retro campaign, with its retro staff and retro view of who Democratic voters are, was predicted to have a swift demise. It didn’t happen. And it if it succeeds in the coming months, Biden and his team will have challenged everything people thought they knew about the Democratic Party in the age of Trump....
Two dominant storylines had emerged from the 2018 midterm elections. In several safe districts, mostly in in urban areas, a number of younger, more left-wing candidates had defeated incumbent Democrats in primaries and then retained the seats for the party in the general election. The most notable example was Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the then 28-year-old former Bernie Sanders campaign volunteer who defeated Joe Crowley, a 20-year incumbent twice her age, in a New York City primary. AOC beat Crowley by 4,100 votes. She now has almost 6 million Twitter followers.
At the same time in 2018, in a number of Republican-held swing districts, moderate Democrats defeated liberal primary opponents and went on to flip the seat for Democrats. Perhaps the best example was Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer from Northern Virginia who first beat a progressive challenger in the primary, then defeated Dave Brat, one of the most conservative House Republicans and a Tea Party celebrity.
Both AOC and Spanberger represented a major political disruption, but in the media, and especially on Twitter, which is not used by 78 percent of Americans, AOC came to define the purported direction of the Democratic Party. The issues of the AOC left soon defined the early months of the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination as candidates outbid each other with calls to abolish ICE, decriminalize the border, embrace the most robust version of the Green New Deal and, most of all, support “Medicare for All.”...
Biden had campaigned around the country in 2018. Spanberger was one of his major primary endorsements that year. Not only could he not AOC-ify himself, he was convinced he didn’t need to.
He had what now seems like a profound insight. “Everyone is misreading the electorate,” he told his guest. “I campaigned in swing places, and the candidates who are winning are people who can get the middle.”...
Biden and his longtime advisers, see the moment as calling for a new kind of triangulation, one that co-opts much of the left’s modern agenda, but sands down its most electorally unpopular edges—decriminalizing the border, banning private health insurance, eliminating all college debt—which they see as key to winning over those Democrats who defected or didn’t vote in 2016.....
The campaign developed a three-pronged message: that the election was about the “soul of the nation”; that the threatened middle class was the “backbone of the nation”; and that what was most needed was to “unify the nation.” Only Biden could restore the nation’s soul, repair its backbone, and unify it.
Donilon and Biden loved it. The only problem? A lot of other Biden advisers hated it. It seemed corny and tone-deaf. “Biden was totally in on it at the outset of this campaign and no one else was—no one,” said the adviser. “They said that’s not where people’s heads are at, because obviously there’s a big debate swirling on the left.”
Ignoring the noisy activist left and its megaphone on social media was perhaps the most consequential decision Biden made at the start of the campaign."
That last sentence tells you a lot about what Biden has gotten right in this campaign. And about how, while he is endlessly derided by many pundits, activists and, yes, people on Twitter, he's actually got some serious political smarts that some of other candidates seem to lack.

Wednesday, December 18, 2019

How to Solve the Democrats' Senate Problem

There's really no arguing with the idea that the Senate, as currently structured, disadvantages the Democrats. Wyoming has as many Senators as California, not fair to begin with, and the partisan skew between small-population and large-population states is just getting worse, as noncollege and rural whites are increasingly likely to vote Republican. Result: a thumb on the scales for the GOP in terms of snagging Senate seats.
Panic? Make DC and Puerto Rico states? Abolish the Senate? Bemoan, as Data for Progress do in a recent memo, that the Senate is a "racist" and "irredeemable" institution or, as Matt Yglesias does in a related article, that the Democrats' chances of ever taking back the Senate are slim and getting slimmer?
Kevin Drum is as annoyed by this kind of garment-rending as I am.
"A mere four years ago, we were bombarded with articles about how the House was almost permanently out of the grasp of Democrats. Thanks to gerrymandering and other issues, Dems would have to win a vast share of the national vote to have any chance of winning even a slim House majority. Then, two years later, Democrats won the House in a landslide.
Now it’s the Senate. But as recently as five years ago Democrats held the Senate, and as recently as ten years ago they held a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. I know life comes at you fast these days, but nothing has changed all that much in the past ten years. Democrats are still fully able to win control of the Senate."
And, as Drum reminds us, there is a very clear and straightforward solution to the Democrats' current Senate problem, which is indisputably bound up with the movement of noncollege whites toward the GOP. And it does not involve adding states to the country or changing the Constitution.
"I know this will sound ridiculous, but hear me out: Democrats could figure out how to appeal to working-class whites.
I know that many progressives would rather move to Canada than even consider such a thing. After all, working-class whites are racist! They hate gays! They love guns! They go to church! They oppose liberal immigration laws! They want to ban abortion! They drive pickup trucks! They like low taxes! They don’t understand intersectionality!
Well, yeah. That’s true of many of them, though certainly not all. And “not all” is a key point here. It’s not as if Democrats have to appeal to stone racists or lunatic gun nuts to win in rural states. They just have to ease up on some of the things that rural voters think are important. Doing this doesn’t automatically mean that you want immigrants in cages or black men to be the targets of mass incarceration. Nor does it mean you want to force women to give birth against their will or fry the planet via climate change. It just means you accept the reality that sometimes society moves more slowly than you’d like.
In 2008, Democrats won Senate seats in Montana, South Dakota, Iowa, Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virgina, and North Carolina. Places like that seem like nothing more than dreams these days. But they aren’t. If working-class whites can move into the Republican camp over the course of only a few years, they can move out in just a few years too. But progressives have to actually care about them and be willing to compromise here and there to win their votes. This is what politics is all about, and always has been."
Words of wisdom. So quit the crying about structure and start worrying about voters.

Tuesday, December 17, 2019

The Best Thing I've Read on the British Elections (And the Left's Failures)

Robert Skidelsky, the leading biographer of Keynes and author of the recent (and highly recommended) Money and Government: The Past and Future of Economics, has just published a terrific article on Project Syndicate about the British elections. He has the following to say about the origins of Brexit.
"Brexit was a reaction to economic betrayal, the British version of a European-wide revolt by what French President Emmanuel Macron called the “left-behinds.” This label is precisely right as a description, but overwhelmingly wrong as a prescription, for it suggests that the future is technologically determined, and that people simply will have to adapt to it. The state’s duty, according to this view, is to enable the left-behinds to board the cost-cutting, labor-shedding bullet express, whereas what most people want is a reasonably secure job that pays a decent wage and gives them a sense of worth.
No one would deny that governments have a vital role to play in providing people with the employment skills they need. But it is also governments’ task to manage the trade-off between security and efficiency so that no sizeable fraction of the population is left involuntarily unemployed.
Guaranteed full employment was the key point of consensus of the Keynesian economics of the 1950s and 1960s, embraced by right and left, with the political battle centered on questions of wealth and income distribution. This is the kind of dynamic center the Conservatives should try to regain."
He goes on to discuss what economic program is called for at the current time and whether the Tories are up to the task. He is skeptical that the Tories can do it but is skeptical of Labour for a different reason. Labour could get farther on the economics but could fail--and has failed--on the cultural front, by alienating many of the voters who should support their economic approach.
"Labour, for its part, needs to recognize that most of its voters are culturally conservative, which became clear with respect to Brexit. The election result disclosed a culture gap between Remainers and Leavers, which for a subset of London and university-campus-based Remainers amounted to a culture war between a politically correct professional class and a swath of the population routinely dubbed stupid, backward, and undereducated, or, more generously, misinformed. One symptom of this gap was the common media depiction of Johnson as a “serial liar,” as though it was his mendacity that obscured from befuddled voters the truth of their situation.
Political correctness ramifies through contemporary culture. I first became aware of a cultural offensive against traditional values in the 1970s, when school history textbooks started to teach that Britain’s achievements were built on the exploitation of colonial peoples, and that people should learn to feel suitably apologetic for the behavior of their forbears. Granted that much history is myth-making, no community can live without a stock of myths in which it can take pride. And “normal” people don’t want to be continuously told that their beliefs, habits, and prejudices are obsolete.1
In the continuous evolution of cultural norms, therefore, a new balance needs to be struck between the urge to overthrow prejudice and the need to preserve social cohesion. Moreover, whereas the phrase “left behind” may reasonably describe the situation of the economically precarious, it is quite wrong as a cultural description. There are too many cultural left-behinds, and their cultural “re-skilling” will take much longer than any economic re-skilling. But such re-skilling is not the right prescription. Metropolitan elites have no right to force their norms on the rest of the country. Labour will need to remember that “normal” people want a TransPennine railway much more than a transgender future.
In short, just as the right went wrong in forcing economic individualism down people’s throats, so the left has gone wrong in its contempt for majority culture. In the UK, the price for elite incapacity in both areas has been Brexit; in Europe and the United States generally, it has been the growth of populism."
So, yes, the British election does have implications for America and they are dire. If the American left is not careful, the kind of cultural elitism that sunk Labour could hand Trump another term. Don't think it could happen? Think again. Trump's entire game plan for 2020 is predicated on portraying Democrats as out of touch elitists who look down on ordinary Americans. He hopes that will energize white noncollege voters to give him even larger margins and turnout than he received in 2016. If you don't think that could happen, you're kidding yourself. And if you don't think that might hand him the election, than you obviously haven't read my report on The Path to 270 in 2020.
PROJECT-SYNDICATE.ORG
Leaving the European Union on January 31, 2020, will be UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s repayment of the debt he owes to the many Labour supporters who "lent" his Conservatives their votes. But "getting Brexit done" won't be enough for the Tories to hold on to their parliamentary seats.

Monday, December 16, 2019

It's the Long-Term Economic Decline, Stupid!

In light of the UK election results, this seems like a good time a flag a major piece of research by three European economists that is quite compelling and maps very well indeed onto the election results.
Their summary:
"Support for Eurosceptic parties has soared in parallel with the rapid rise of the populist wave currently engulfing Europe. Discontent with the EU is purportedly driven by the very factors behind the surge of populism: differences in age, wealth, education, or economic and demographic trajectories. New research mapping the geography of discontent across more than 63,000 electoral districts in the EU challenges this view. It shows that the rise of the anti-EU vote is mainly the consequence of long- to medium-term local economic and industrial decline in combination with lower employment and a less educated workforce....
[I]t is long-term economic and industrial decline that emerge as two fundamental drivers of the anti-EU vote. As indicated by Gordon (2018), it has been long forecast that persistent territorial inequalities could lead to major political breakdown. But more than the gap between rich and poor regions, the long-term economic and industrial trajectory of places makes the difference for the anti-system vote. Corroborating the theory of ‘places that don’t matter’ (Rodríguez-Pose 2018), the long-term decline of areas that saw better times – often with a grander industrial past – combined with the economic stagnation of places hitting a middle-income trap, provide fertile breeding grounds for the brewing of anti-system and anti-European integration sentiments."
Their solution:
"Many governments and mainstream parties seem to be at a loss as to how they should react to this phenomenon. Our research offers some initial suggestions about how to address the issue. If Europe is to combat the growing geography of EU discontent, fixing the so-called ‘places that don’t matter’ is one of the best ways to start. Responding to this emerging geography of EU discontent requires addressing the territorial distress felt by places that have been left behind, and promoting policies that do not merely target, as is common, either well-developed large cities or the least developed regions. Viable development intervention designed to address long-term trajectories of low-, no-, or negative-growth regions and provide solutions for places suffering from industrial decline and brain drain is urgently needed. Moreover, policies must go beyond simple compensatory and/or appeasement measures, which will require tapping into the often overlooked economic potential of these places and providing real opportunities to tackle neglect and decline."
Among other things, Corbyn and co. clearly did not convince the relevant populations in these areas that they had viable strategies to reverse ongoing decline and make "places that don't matter" matter. So the voters went elsewhere.
VOXEU.ORG
Support for Eurosceptic parties and the rise of populism threaten not only European integration, but peace and prosperity on the continent more broadly. Rather than attributing their rise to the individual characteristics of voters – such as age or income – this column takes a different approach...

Don't Sleep on the 2020 State Legislative Races!

By all means, let's defeat Trump in 2020. And keep the House and make progress in the Senate. But let us not forget how very, very important the state legislative races will be this time around. 2018 was just a start, albeit a good one. Can you say "redistricting"? I think you can!
The Post had a nice long article on Democratic state legislative plans for 2020. The graphic below is worth the cost of admission all by itself.
"By the time President Barack Obama left office in 2017, Republicans were in the majority in two-thirds of state legislative chambers and held 33 of the nation’s governorships....
Over the past three years, Democrats have flipped about 435 state legislative seats, including winning control of chambers in New York, Connecticut, Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Washington and Maine, in addition to the victories this year in Virginia. Democrats also picked up nine governorships. But Republicans still have majority control in 29 state legislatures, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.
DLCC leaders say their top targets next year will be flipping both chambers of legislatures in Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, while also winning control of House chambers in Iowa, Texas and Michigan and the Senate chamber in Minnesota. The organization also plans to work closely with groups that plan to heavily contest races in other states."

Thursday, December 12, 2019

Joe Biden's Immigration Plan: Pretty Good!

From the New York Times article on the plan:
"Like other Democratic presidential hopefuls, Mr. Biden would roll back Trump administration immigration policies, including its practice of forcing migrant families to wait in dangerous areas of Mexico for the duration of their immigration cases and limiting the number of asylum seekers who can apply for protection at entry points along the border. Mr. Biden would also reinstate Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA, which Mr. Trump has moved to end. The program, created during the Obama administration, shields young immigrants known as Dreamers from deportation....
As a longer-term goal, Mr. Biden’s plan calls for an overhaul of the country’s immigration system, including providing a path to citizenship for people who are in the country illegally. He also wants to allow cities and counties to petition for more visas for immigrants to support economic growth....
Despite a push on the left to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE, Mr. Biden’s plan stops short of seeking that or even outlining any major restructuring of the agency. His plan says his administration would ensure that personnel at ICE, as well as at Customs and Border Protection, “abide by professional standards and are held accountable for inhumane treatment.”
Mr. Biden’s plan does not call for decriminalizing unauthorized border crossings, a move supported by some other Democratic presidential candidates. Asked at a debate in June whether they believed that crossing the border without documentation should be a civil offense instead of a crime, most of the candidates onstage raised their hands. Mr. Biden raised a finger.
The next week, in an interview on CNN, he said he did not support the decriminalization of such crossings. “I think people should have to get in line, but if people are coming because they’re actually seeking asylum, they should have a chance to make their case,” he said."
So far, so good. As political scientist Marc Hetherington has said (quoted by Tom Edsall):
"Liberal Democrats don’t seem to realize they are out of step with the rest of the American public when it comes to immigration and racial attitudes...,Most consequentially, liberals seem to think that surely most Americans are fine with more porous borders. It would be cold and heartless for people to believe otherwise, not to mention economically shortsighted....[liberal faith in widespread support for immigration] is not even remotely true.”
And that gets to the heart of some Democrats' cultural (not economic) vulnerabilities as potential general election candidates. As Ed Luce noted in a Financial Times column:
"People in the middle, who may quietly support gay marriage but attend churches that do not, or who sympathise with illegal immigrants but want a secure US-Mexico border, feel looked down upon. Implying that those who disagree with you are backward is a poor way of winning their vote."
After the UK election results, perhaps we should take this problem more seriously and not assume a robustly progressive economic program (as popular as that may be) will cure all electoral ills.
NYTIMES.COM
Mr. Biden would roll back President Trump’s immigration policies but would not decriminalize unauthorized border crossings, in contrast with his progressive rivals.