Friday, September 7, 2018

I Really Miss This Guy

Obama always knew--and knows--exactly how to frame political challenges. In an era where Democrats are wasting energy on pointless debates about race vs. class, mobilizing the base vs. reaching out to the white working class, Obama is unerringly on point. An excerpt from his speech on Friday at the University of Illinois--Urbana-Champaign.
"[W]e won’t win people over by calling them names or dismissing the entire chunks of the country as racist or sexist or homophobic. When I say bring people together, I mean all of our people. This whole notion that sprung up recently about Democrats needing to choose between trying to appeal to white working class voters or voters of color and women and LGBT Americans. That’s nonsense. I don’t buy that. I got votes for them in every demographic. We won by reaching out to everybody. And competing everywhere, and by fighting for every vote.
And that’s what we got to do in this election and every election after that. And we can’t do that if we immediately disregard what others have to say from the start because they’re not like us — because they’re white or they’re black or they’re men or women or they’re gay or they’re straight. If we think that somehow, there is no way they can understand how I am feeling and therefore don’t have any standing to speak on certain matters because we are only defined by certain characteristics. That does not work, if you want a healthy democracy."
Amen.

Thursday, September 6, 2018

College-educated Whites Really, Really Don't Like Trump

Interesting data from the Economist/Yougov poll:
"The decline in the president’s numbers stems largely from a change among college-educated whites (see chart). These voters will have a disproportionate weight in the upcoming midterm elections to the House of Representatives, both because they show up at polling booths and because so many of them live in marginal congressional districts. In the same poll, 49% of college-educated whites support Democratic candidates for the House (the generic ballot), while 40% support the Republicans. These are awful numbers for Republicans: the president is contagious. Those who are sceptical that Mr Trump’s base of stalwart supporters—the 20-30% of Americans who “strongly approve” of the job he is doing—will ever leave his side are missing the forest for the trees."

Wednesday, September 5, 2018

Latinos and the 2018 Election

There hasn't been much polling specifically of Latinos in the 2018 election cycle and the subsamples in most polls are small enough not to be very trustworthy. So it's nice to see Latino Decisions out of the gate with a tracking poll of Latinos that they will do every week until the elections.
Their first poll is now available. Topline for the Democrats for the House vote is good --a 70-22 advantage among likely voters. On the less positive side, mobilization leaves something to be desired--about three-fifths say they have not been contacted yet concerning their vote. This is not an election when you want to leave any votes on the table!

Tuesday, September 4, 2018

Can Andrew Gillum Beat Ron DeSantis?


Florida has looked a little dicey for the Democrats this cycle. Bill Nelson, in particular, is in a very tough race to hold his Senate seat, with challenger Rick Scott running slightly ahead in the polls.
But could Andrew Gillum be a ray of sunshine for the Democrats in the Sunshine State? Gillum, the strongly progressive black mayor of Tallahassee, was the upset victor in the August 28 Democratic primary and now carries the party''s hopes for taking back the Florida governorship.
Impressively, despite his distinctly non-centrist profile and an unfolding corruption investigation around him in Tallahassee, he is out of the gate with some very positive poll results. The just-released Quinnipiac poll of Florida has Gillum ahead of DeSantis 50-47 among likely voters.
How seriously should we take this poll? Besides the fact that it is just one poll and that it is very early days in the race, there are some other reasons for caution.
While Gillum, as one might expect, has overwhelming black support (93-2!), Hispanic support is troublingly poor--in fact, the poll shows DeSantis carrying these voters 56-43. Since Clinton carried Hispanics 57-38 in 2016 and still lost the state, one wonders how the poll shows Gillum in the lead.
The answer lies in the poll's white sample. Among these voters, Gillum is shockingly close, only trailing DeSantis by 7 points (by comparison, Clinton lost whites in the state by 22 points in 2016).. Drilling down a little further, the poll shows Gillum splitting the white college vote about evenly and only losing the white noncollege vote by 15 points. I find the former result somewhat believable but the latter somewhat less so.. Noncollege whites, after all, gave Trump a 30 point margin in Florida in 2016 and one wonders how likely they are to swing so sharply to Gillum and the Democrats in 2018.
So caution about this poll is certainly warranted. But there are some very interesting patterns here for Democrats to keep an eye on. Stay tuned.

Monday, September 3, 2018

Is This the Year Democrats Break Through in the Sunbelt?

Democrats' hopes are high that two Sunbelt prizes that seemed out of reach to them not long ago might fall to them this year: the governorship of Georgia and Ted Cruz's Senate seat in Texas. Just in the last few days, both the Washington Post and New York Times have run detailed articles about each of these contests.
So can the Democrats do it? They're running strong in both places and enthusiasm among Democrats and their core constituencies seems to be high. That is very important obviously and they can't win without it.
But let me give you two numbers to contemplate: 24 and 28. Those are the percentages, respectively, of the white vote in Georgia and Texas that Hillary Clinton got running against Donald Trump. Since whites will likely be over three-fifths of voters in each state, that's got to improve for Stacey Abrams and Beto O'Rourke to prevail. Primarily this will come from the white college vote but some improvement in the larger white noncollege vote is probably also necessary. Otherwise, the Democrats would have to come close to splitting the white college vote evenly in both states, which is a heavy lift.
Stacey Abrams seems to get this. Here's what the New York Times recently reported about her campaign:
"Ms. Abrams, 44, a Yale Law School graduate and former state house minority leader, has been campaigning around Georgia arguing, with wonkish delight, that her progressive policy ideas — including robust investment in public education, gun control and the expansion of Medicaid under Obamacare — amount to mainstream common sense. Her campaign calls it an “opportunity” agenda, and believes it will resonate more widely than the hot-button conservative agenda that Mr. Kemp is still known for that focuses on issues like illegal immigration and the Second Amendment.
Ms. Abrams is also hoping to appeal to moderate voters, placing decidedly more emphasis on her plans to create jobs and invest in education than her criticism of some Confederate memorials, which she has modulated recently."
The Sunbelt is a long-term project for the Democrats, as Ron Brownstein points out in a recent article. But sometimes the long-term comes early. We shall see.
About this website
THEATLANTIC.COM
From Florida to Texas, November’s elections provide an opening for Democrats to shift the balance of power—and make up for lost ground in the heartland.

Sunday, September 2, 2018

Hillaryland Says: It's Time to Think Big!

I thought this was really interesting. Jake Sullivan, who was senior policy adviser on Clinton's 2016 campaign, has a lengthy article up on the Democracy Journal website where he argues strongly that Democrats should embrace big, bold policy ideas. Presumably this is indicative of how folks in that sector of the party are thinking about things these days. One of the most telling nuggets in the article is this:
"In contending with Sanders, we often fell back on the argument that his proposed agenda simply wasn’t achievable. I cheered when Hillary styled herself as a “progressive who gets things done” during the first primary debate in Las Vegas, but while it was a great debate moment, it also created a trap that became apparent as the campaign unfolded. Instead of aspiration, we gave people arithmetic: His numbers didn’t add up! This was a mistake. There was a time and place for expressing caution on the sheer magnitude of spending in Bernie’s agenda, but it should not have been our core critique."
So clearly some serious re-thinking is going on here. What kind of re-thinking? Sullivan starts his article this way:
"When political commentators aren’t talking about Donald Trump, they are often talking about how the Democratic Party has “moved to the left.” This is often phrased as a lament, the notion being that the party has been hijacked by its progressive wing. But what if that is missing the point? What if, when it comes to economic policy at least, it’s the country’s political center of gravity that is actually shifting? That is, what if not just one party, but the American electorate as a whole is moving to embrace a more energized form of government—one that tackles the excesses of the free market and takes on big, serious challenges through big, serious legislation instead of the more restrained measures to which we’ve grown accustomed? What would that mean for Democrats?"
He answers his own question in a remarkably robust fashion:
"This essay proceeds from the premise that we have reached another turning point. Just as the Great Depression discredited the ideas of the pre-New Deal conservatives who fought for total laissez-faire outcomes in both the political branches and the courts, so the Great Recession once again laid bare the failure of our government to protect its citizens from unchecked market excess. There has been a delayed reaction this time around, but people have begun to see more clearly not only the flaws of our public and private institutions that contributed to the financial crisis, but also the decades of rising inequality and income stagnation that came before—and the uneven recovery that followed. Our politics are in the process of adjusting to this new reality. The tide is running in the other direction, and, with history serving as our guide, it could easily be a decades-long tide...
In the face of Trump, some Democrats will be skittish about embracing big, bold economic policy solutions for fear of alienating independents and moderate Republicans who can help defend our national institutions, our core values, and our democracy. What these trends suggest is that Democrats do not have to choose between shoring up the “vital center” in American politics and supporting a more vigorous national response to our economic challenges. Both are possible. Indeed, both are necessary to defeating the long-term threat of Trumpism.
Most important, the bottom line is that Democrats should not blush too much, or pay too much heed, when political commentators arch their eyebrows about the party moving left. The center of gravity itself is moving, and this is a good thing. The government’s role in checking the excesses of the free market and supporting workers and families should and will be redefined in the years ahead.....
We Democrats do need to embrace a big, bold policy agenda. We do need to heed the calls of Franklin Roosevelt, who asked us to save capitalism from its excesses, and Lyndon Johnson, who asked us to think ambitiously about how government—and yes, government programs—can help do that. But, crucially, we need to apply their principles to a new economic landscape.
What we need, ultimately, is to encourage the rise of New Old Democrats.
Here’s the old part: reclaiming a willingness to take energetic government action when the circumstances call for it, based on a respect for the free market but also a recognition that the free market alone will not serve the public interest without checks against abuse, corruption, and unacceptable levels of inequality. Roosevelt knew this as well as anyone. My hero Hubert Humphrey, another son of Minnesota, knew this too. They saw that public policy can solve these problems—that the rise of inequality and the loss of mobility is not chiefly a story of abstract “market failures,” but of self-serving actors intentionally distorting markets, and government failing to stop them.
Here are the new parts:
We need to marry the principles of Roosevelt and the ambition of Johnson with updated understandings of how the job market works, how families live, and how corporate and political power are exercised in the globalized, technology-driven landscape of the twenty-first century."
New Old Democrats. Not sure that'll catch on but I take his point and generally agree with it. As I do with most of the policy ideas he advances under four "Core Pillars for s New Old Democratic Platform" I was particularly taken with Pillar #3: "Tackle the geography of opportunity so that all regions experience a middle-class revival". This is absolutely essential given current economic trends and has not, until very recently, gotten enough attention from Democrats. As Sullivan notes:
"Old Democrats thought a lot about communities that had been left behind in the face of social and technological change. Roosevelt invested in rural electrification. Bobby Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson fought urban and rural poverty. Today, the geography of opportunity should be a central focus once again—specifically, the disparity in growth and dynamism between cities and rural communities, the urban core and wealthier neighborhoods, the suburbs and the exurbs, the coastal metropolises and mid-sized cities in the middle of America."
Amen to that. Exactly which big ideas Democrats should be pushing to address this big problem--and others--is a reasonable subject for debate and I think it's fair to say Sullivan does not have the definitive take. But that's fine. These are the debates Democrats should be having in the run-up to 2020 rather than the endless and rather pointless debates about base mobilization vs. reaching swing voters (Spoiler alert: you need to do both!) Sullivan points the way to a healthier and way more interesting and important discussion.
Sullivan is not unaware that some will see his recommendations as some sort of dismissal of what we might loosely call "identity politics". He urges us not get dragged down into that kind of argument. Instead his view is that:
"[T]he only way out is through. Hillary Clinton was fundamentally right when she said that we need to deal with all of the barriers holding people back—not just the economic and political barriers, but obstacles of racism, sexism, and other forms of discrimination. We should not be apologetic about that, or tiptoe around it. The task—and where we fell short—is to figure out how to speak honestly about these barriers in a way that allows everyone to see themselves as part of a common effort, a shared effort, an effort that benefits the whole country. While I disagree with those who argue that Democrats should de-emphasize or outright avoid what some see as “inconvenient” issues touching on race or identity or immigration, I take their point that an explicit list of groups in a candidate’s stump speech can end up dividing more than uniting. Which brings me back to Hubert Humphrey. We need “happy warriors”—strongly crusading against injustice and disadvantages and doing so in a way that is hopeful and summons us to shared purpose."
Sign me up!


DEMOCRACYJOURNAL.ORG
It's not the 1990s anymore. People want the government to help solve big problems. Here's how the Democrats must respond.

Saturday, September 1, 2018

10 Years After the Crash: Where Did the Left Go Wrong?

The greatest policy mistake of the last 10 years has been austerity. The greatest mistake of the left has been to accommodate austerity.
That's the case made by UK Guardian's economics editor, Larry Elliott, in a recent column and I am inclined to agree with him. Elliott observes:
"The banks were never broken up. Plans for a financial transactions tax are gathering dust. Politicians toyed with the idea of a green new deal and then promptly forgot about it. There never was a huge swing of the pendulum away from the prevailing orthodoxy, just a brief nudge that was quickly reversed. The brutal fact is that the left had its chance, and it blew it....
September 2008 was a near-death experience for global capitalism. At one point there were fears for the entire western banking system; when the recession was at its worst, industrial production was collapsing more quickly than it had in the early stages of the Great Depression. It was that bad. The moment was ripe for politicians brave enough to state the obvious: that the crisis was the result of removing all the shackles on global financial capitalism put in place for good reason in the 1930s. But social democratic parties failed miserably to come up with a progressive response to the crisis that would have involved redressing the imbalance between capital and labour. They were timid when they should have been brave, and have paid a heavy price as a result. Mainstream parties patched up the system and paid scant heed to the anger felt by those who felt ignored. The bitterness bubbled away and eventually found other ways of manifesting itself."
He has the following to say about Obama who, while he did some very good things, was fundamentally quite cautious about how he approached the crisis:
"The contrast between Franklin Roosevelt in the 1930s and Barack Obama is telling. Both men arrived in the White House in desperate times. Both had a mandate for change. Roosevelt thought reform was necessary to save capitalism from itself. It was this intellectual framework that resulted in the Glass-Steagall Act to separate banks’ investment and retail operations; public works schemes for the unemployed; and laws to make it easier for trade unions to organise. Obama, like most of his fellow centre-left politicians 10 years ago, was a technocrat who broadly accepted the status quo and never seriously contemplated taking on finance. Wall Street detested Roosevelt. It found Obama much more amenable.
Obama deserves a bit of sympathy. Every radical period requires a philosopher king to help to provide a political framework for action. For the first generation of free-market liberals, the gurus were Adam Smith and David Ricardo. For Lenin it was Karl Marx. In the 1930s, it was John Maynard Keynes. And in the 1970s it was Milton Friedman and Friedrich Hayek. Ten years ago there was no one."
Elliott draws several lessons from the left's failures in the last decade:
"One [lesson] is that progressives have to win the battle of ideas, and that means taking back control of how economics is taught. Some steps have been taken to address this issue since the financial crisis, with George Soros bankrolling the Institute for New Economic Thinking, a forum for heterodox thinking. But even though the collapse of 2008 was the result of failed economics, those responsible for the duff theories remain well dug in on university campuses. Progress has been slow.
A second is that a progressive political agenda starts at the top, with an over-arching critique, and works its way down to specific policies. That was what worked in the 1940s, when the postwar consensus was built on a simple concept: never again. Control of the commanding heights of the economy and demand management flowed from that.
A third is that progressives have to be clear about what they want. The left remains divided between those who think – as Bill Clinton and Tony Blair did – that the only choice was to work with the grain of global capitalism; those who think, as Roosevelt did, that a more root-and-branch approach is needed; and those who think capitalism is so rotten it is beyond saving."
Sounds like the left I know and love! For additional analysis along these lines, I also recommend Yanis Varoufakis' latest piece on Project Syndicate, "The Three Tribes of Austerity".
About this website
THEGUARDIAN.COM
Capitalism’s near-death experience was a golden opportunity for progressives. But they blew it, says the Guardian’s economics editor Larry Elliott