Monday, July 26, 2021

The Five Faces of the Republican Party

It's understandable but not useful to look at the Republican party as just Trump, Trump, Trump and nothing else. In reality, the GOP is a big sprawling mess with many factions. The shifting balance of power between these factions will have a great deal to do with the Republican party the Democrats will have to deal with in 2022, 2024 and beyond.
Henry Olsen is one of the sharpest conservative analysts around and in a recent column he delineates five current factions of the GOP underneath the surface of current ties to Trump:
Old Guard: change nothing in the GOP's loyalty to free market fundamentalism. Example: Pat Toomey
Adapters: keep the basic GOP approach to economics but nod in the direction of some of the Trump deviations on economics. Example: Niki Haley
Searchers: change the GOP to recognize its increasingly working class character, including modestly moving away from big business. Example: Jim Banks
And here is where it gets interesting.
Reformers: "[They] ave vocally been calling for such a comprehensive rethink for many years. Led by a trio of young senators — Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) — they have blazed the trail with speeches and ideas to recast U.S. capitalism. Rubio’s 2019 speech on restoring “common good capitalism” provided a theoretical justification for this stance. It was epitomized by his leadership in crafting the Paycheck Protection Program and his support for the failed effort to unionize an Amazon warehouse in Alabama. Cotton has drafted bills calling for an increase in the minimum wage, government subsidization for domestic semiconductor manufacturing, and returning money collected from tariffs on Chinese goods to working and middle-class taxpayers. Hawley has blasted Big Tech, calling to remove their Section 230 protection, and spoken widely about how the economy has failed too many Americans in recent decades. Together, they are pushing Republicans to reposition themselves quickly and comprehensively."
Prophets: "The final group is currently the smallest, the Prophets. Led by Ohio senatorial candidate and author J.D. Vance, the Prophets call for even more change than the Reformers. Vance goes where others have feared to tread, calling for tax hikes on companies that move jobs out of the United States. His 2019 speech at the National Conservatism Conference, “Beyond Libertarianism,” was a thorough and searing critique of how the worship of market forces has led to far too many impoverished Americans. If Vance wins his primary next year, the power of his critiques will surely increase the Prophets’ ranks."
Interesting. Most Democrats make the mistake of dismissing the latter two groups because of their currently professed loyalty to Trump. But in doing so they miss the extent to which these politicians could, over time, move the GOP toward a brand that would be competitive with the Democrats on more than cultural grounds.
I have noticed this particularly with Vance, who is a very interesting figure. Now that he's recanted his criticisms of Trump people dismiss him as just another unhinged Trumpy Republican. Not so. HIs shift on Trump is a cynical transparent ploy to aid his political fortunes which makes him a....politician. But the rest of his politics could make him a formidable force which Democrats discount at their peril.

Saturday, July 24, 2021

DC Is a Microcosm of Everything That's Wrong with the Democrats' Approach on Crime

The most recent events on the streets of DC have been atrocious. Washington Post columnist Colbert King has seen enough:
"A few hours after the international broadcast of gunplay outside Nationals Park on July 17, and one day after the horrible shooting death of 6-year-old Nyiah Courtney in Southeast Washington, Northwest D.C.'s Ward 4 experienced a 77-minute crime burst.
"The reports came in:
July 18, 12:12 a.m.: shooting 300 block of Delafield Place NW.
12:55 a.m.: robbery 5200 block of 2nd Street NW.
1:29 a.m.: homicide 6700 block 5th Street NW.
The following day, crime took an even more audacious turn. A robbery was committed in broad daylight at 9th and Quackenbos streets NW, a few yards from Fourth District police headquarters. A gray Toyota drove up, a man jumped out, and with 4D HQ in plain sight, robbed the victim and drove away.
Then, on Thursday evening, bullets flew at near the intersection of 14th and Riggs streets NW, scattering pedestrians and restaurant patrons....
[A] veteran law enforcement official said, “a significant number of people being arrested for these crimes have been previously arrested for committing the same crimes, year after year.”
Police Chief Robert J. Contee III alluded to that problem after the shooting outside Nationals Park. “We can reform the police, that’s great, community people can call tips in, that’s great, but if we’re letting these people out the back door and not being held accountable for their actions, that’s another issue we have to dig deep into,” he said.
Indeed, some of the same offenders, including young ones, keep turning up. Cops have a hard time keeping up. “Stretched thin” is the way one top cop put it — citing staffing shortages, rock-bottom morale and resignations.
The D.C. Council and mayor, no political slouches if nothing else, know something needs to be done. Their response has been to pour more than $200 million into gun-violence prevention programs — perhaps useful, but clearly of unproven worth....
But where are city leaders on the reality that offenders must be held accountable?
By any yardstick, the chief preoccupation of lawmakers and public safety advocates is police reform. That tops all else. The crime crisis comes in a distant second.
At a May forum on urgent criminal justice issues in the city, D.C. Auditor Kathy Patterson asked stakeholders a simple but admittedly hard question to answer: “What is the one thing you would do in policy or practice to [quickly] improve public safety in the District?”
A couple of samples:
Robert Bobb, co-chair of the D.C. Police Reform Commission and former city administrator, answered: “Create an environment within [[the D.C. police]] where there is complete transparency of how the police operate, which would be shared without any editing with the community.”...
Christy E. Lopez, co-chair of the D.C. Police Reform Commission and former Justice Department Civil Rights Division official (and a Post contributing columnist): “I would want to . . . look at implementing either a generalized first-responder . . . model . . . or a mental health crisis response. . . . It would reduce a lot of human harm and pain that happens when we get the wrong response . . . a police response when another type of response is warranted.”
Mind, these responses are to a question on improving *public safety* in the middle of a crime spike. Talk about being out of touch.
King concludes:
"More was said about injecting cultural competency and anti-bias education into police training. About demilitarizing the police as an “occupying force” in the community; reimagining police as “guardians,” not “warriors”; expunging “anti-Blackness” out of police practices; and changing interactions between Black youth and the police.
As for holding criminals accountable, stopping criminal behavior, not condoning or finding ways to excuse it when it’s repeatedly committed — well, not so much.
And who knows that better than the dudes with the guns."
King's cri de coeur is bracing and instructive. For more detailed analysis of how the Democratic response to crime is going astray I recommend this piece by criminologist Peter Moskos in the Wall Street Journal. Moskos analyzes the murder spike in 2020 and argues that it cannot be understood outside of the context of police pullback in the wake of the George Floyd murder and the associated protests and political climate. As the article's subtitle notes, "last year’s unprecedented rise in killings was the result of treating policing as a problem to be solved, rather than an essential part of public order." Losing the thread of police and policing as essential to public order has had big consequences.
"Years of declining crime rates through 2014 had allowed political leaders to shift their focus away from crime prevention. The number of arrests nationwide peaked in 1997, and the number of people incarcerated has been in a slow decline since 2007. What changed in 2020 is that policing itself came under unprecedented pressure, brought on by the murder of Mr. Floyd.
Mr. Floyd’s death and other incidents in recent years have put a spotlight on racial tensions over the use of force by police and have spurred a political response, including the election in many cities of officials determined to change police behavior. In Boston, District Attorney Rachael Rollins pledged to stop prosecuting disorderly conduct, driving with a suspended license and trespassing. Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot all but banned police from pursuing suspects on foot.
Such external pressure, combined with a pullback on the part of police departments wary of intensified scrutiny, has resulted in less proactive policing in many cities. In Los Angeles, for instance, arrests declined 40% between 2013 and 2019, mostly as a result of Proposition 47, which reclassified many felonies as misdemeanors. In 2020 arrests dropped another 37%, and this year they are down another 6% so far, even as shootings and murders in Los Angeles continue to rise.
In recent focus groups I’ve observed, officers say they still handle calls for service and go after criminals they see committing crimes, but they readily admit they are much less likely to enforce a minor violation or stop a person based on reasonable suspicion. They fear that increased resistance from emboldened suspects might require the use of force, leading to public criticism and even the prosecution of police officers.
In 2020, trying to contain a wave of civil unrest complicated matters for police departments. During such special operations, when resources are stretched thin, officers are told to limit interactions and arrests, to avoid being taken out of service for prisoner transport and hours of paperwork....
New York police officials reported that in 2020 about 40% of those arrested for gun possession were released on their own recognizance, pending indefinitely postponed prosecution. Meanwhile, in the face of rising protests, proactive quality-of-life stops, tickets and arrests plunged by 90% or more, even as routine requests for police intervention rose by almost 50%.
The power of deterrence is often overrated, but the effective withdrawal of so much of the criminal justice system in New York City was bound to have an effect.
Maintaining police morale and numbers has also become a problem. Many city departments have become understaffed as the current atmosphere leads to fewer applicants to join the force and more retirements. Jurisdictions seen as less critical of police officers, such as Bellevue, Wash., and Anne Arundel County, Md., actively recruit officers from nearby Seattle and Washington, D.C., in what are known among the departments as “lateral transfers.”
A number of the cities with the biggest increases in murders in 2020 were associated with particularly controversial policing incidents. Murders increased by 69% in Minneapolis, for example, where Mr. Floyd was killed, and by 99% in Louisville, where Breonna Taylor was shot in a botched police operation. In Seattle, where protests after Mr. Floyd’s death sometimes turned violent and resulted in the creation of an anti-police “autonomous zone,” the murder rate increased 41%.
There are precedents in other cities for police pullbacks in the face of controversy and subsequent spikes in violent crime. In Baltimore in 2015, six officers were charged for the death of Freddy Gray in police custody. After riots led to personnel shortages and a more combative public, proactive policing essentially ended. The 2014 shooting death of Laquan McDonald in Chicago, which was followed by a police and political coverup, led to a new requirement for police officers to complete lengthy forms, subject to official review by the ACLU, for every stop they made. In this environment, police largely declined to stop suspicious people, and violent crime increased.
Civil unrest and calls for police accountability don’t directly cause an increase in murders and other violence. The danger is when antipolice sentiment rises to the point where policing is seen as the primary problem to be solved rather than as an essential part of maintaining public order and safety. Onerous restrictions on the police can lead to the worst of both worlds: poorer policing and more violence.
The first step on the path forward is heightened accountability—not just for police misconduct, though that is essential, but for crime prevention. Mayors, city councils and police chiefs must accept responsibility for dramatic increases in street violence under their leadership, and they must be ready to defend the legal and necessary use of force by police. Urban electorates are looking for such leaders, as the victory of NYPD veteran Eric Adams in the recent New York City primary for mayor suggests."
There you have it. Rising crime has to be stopped and it is silly to think that you can police reform your way to public safety. Politicians who insist on believing that will be duly punished by voters.
Read Moskos' whole article if you possibly can. I also recommend his book Cop in the Hood and his blog Quality Policing.

Friday, July 23, 2021

Redistricting-palooza: Be Careful What You Wish For

The good folks at Sabato's Crystal Ball are out with the first part of what promises to be an epic series covering the redistricting and reapportionment situation in every region of the country. This piece is their national overview and it has a ton of useful data and maps.
And here's a finding from the piece that kind of blew my mind. I think you'll agree it's pretty amazing.
"Republicans control the drawing of 187 of the 435 seats, or 43% of all the districts, while Democrats have control over just 75 districts, 17% of the districts. Meanwhile, 46 districts (11%) are in states with divided government while 121 (28%) are in states with nonpartisan/independent commissions. The remaining six districts (1%) are in states with just a single, at-large congressional district.
The number of states that use independent/bipartisan commissions has increased in recent years: a little more than a quarter of the total seats in the House are in states that use some sort of commission. Colorado, Michigan, and Virginia are all decent-sized states that have implemented some form of commission system in recent years.
Specifically, there are 10 states that use a commission to draw the lines: Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Virginia, and Washington. If those commissions did not exist, and redistricting power was instead given to the state legislature with the possibility of a gubernatorial veto, Democrats would have the power to draw the maps in six of these 10 states (California, Colorado, Hawaii, New Jersey, Virginia, and Washington), Republicans would have the power in three (Arizona, Idaho, and Montana), and there would be divided government control in Michigan (Democrats hold the governorship, Republicans hold the state legislature).
Instead of Republicans holding a 187-75 edge, their advantage would be a more modest 200-170 under this scenario, with the remaining 65 districts either in one-district states or in ones with divided government.
So in some states, Democrats may be, or are, kicking themselves for backing redistricting commissions. Both parties supported a 2018 Colorado ballot issue that created an independent redistricting commission for congressional maps. Had it not passed, Democrats now would have gerrymandering power in the Centennial State and drawn themselves a better map than a draft the commission released a few weeks ago, which likely will result in a 5-3 Democratic delegation but could split 4-4 in a strong Republican year. “We’re (expletive) idiots,” said one anonymous state lawmaker, as quoted by the Colorado Sun."
The law of unintended consequences I guess.
Redistricting in America, Part One: Gerrymandering Potency Raises the Stakes for the 2020s – Sabato's Crystal Ball
CENTERFORPOLITICS.ORG
Redistricting in America, Part One: Gerrymandering Potency Raises the Stakes for the 2020s – Sabato's Crystal Ball
Redistricting in America, Part One: Gerrymandering Potency Raises the Stakes for the 2020s By Kyle KondikIn: 2022 HousePosted July 22, 2021 Dear Readers: This is the first of a multi-part Crystal Ball series that we’ll be publishing periodically between now and Labor Day analyzing congressional re...

Thursday, July 22, 2021

Shaming Trump Supporters Is Dumb and Won't Work

Hillary Clinton famously likened Trump supporters to "a basket of deplorables", a gaffe that contributed to her stunning defeat in 2016. But she actually said only *half* of Trump supporters were in a basket of deplorables. Today's liberal Democrats and activists, in my experience, are not satisfied with this. As far as they're concerned *all* Trump supporters belong in said basket. They're all deplorable, every last one of them. Lo, they have sinned and are forever cast out of civilized humanity. That seems to be the general attitude.
This is not, to say the least, a way to win any converts. People know when you look down on them and they react accordingly. They may harbor their doubts about Trump but shaming them for their erstwhile Trump support just gets their back up.
In the Post today, Gary Abernathy, one of those erstwhile Trump supporters, points out just how dumb and counterproductive this self-righteous liberal attitude is:
"When supporters of former president Donald Trump hear media pundits analyze them with the usual collection of belittling observations, they must be tempted to respond, “Hey, we’re right here! We can hear you!”
Yes, they are indeed here, and living among us. And they have every right to be insulted by being accused of believing a “big lie,” and by the implication that they are violent, or traitors, or mindless sheep — racist sheep, of course....
I live in Trump Country. I was a Trump supporter, until he lost me with his actions after the 2020 election. But most Trump voters have stuck with him. With Trump’s encouragement, they sincerely believe the election was stolen. They’re not racists. They’re not traitors. Some of them think anyone who accepts Biden’s win is a traitor. Some of them think I’m traitorous — or at the very least I’ve succumbed to the evil influences of the mainstream media — for accepting Trump’s defeat.....
It’s my unscientific conclusion that about half of Trump’s supporters will go to their graves believing the election was stolen. The other half can be persuaded otherwise, but only by time and reflection, like accepting a death. Shaming will never work....
[S]top calling people liars. The media should return to the non-accusatory style that worked for decades. Instead of writing that election fraud is a lie, or Republicans are “falsely claiming” fraud, go back to the style that worked for decades: “Republicans again claimed the 2020 election was rigged, but no evidence has emerged to support that allegation and courts have dismissed all suits challenging the results.”
Next, abandon the narrative that Trump supporters are insurrectionists, and stop elevating groups such as QAnon and the Proud Boys beyond the fringe elements they are. As shameful as the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol was, only about 800 people were involved — hardly representative of millions of Trump supporters. Despite their suspicions, the vast majority of Trump voters are not interested in invading federal buildings or overthrowing the government. They’re interested in going to work and church and soccer games, taking care of their families and voting in the next election.
There’s no big mystery to effectively communicating with Trump supporters — or for Trump supporters to communicate with everyone else. Treat each other with politeness and courtesy. Respect other opinions even if you disagree. Acknowledge each other’s patriotism and love of country. Don’t assume you understand each other because you’ve read some think-tank analysis. Reach out, be curious and start a dialogue.
Trump supporters aren’t going away, and those who continue to paint them as the lowest forms of life reveal themselves to be more interested in perpetrating stereotypes and nurturing divisions than in achieving what’s needed for our nation to survive — reaching across our political chasm, respecting our differences and finding common ground where we can."
I agree with all this. It may make you feel good to regard all Trump supporters--perhaps unto the seventh generation--with withering contempt. But it is monumentally ineffective if you care about building a better politics for a better future.
And you should.

Wednesday, July 21, 2021

The Deng Xiaoping of the Democratic Party?

"I don't care if the cat is black or white, so long as it catches mice". So said Deng Xiaoping, the pragmatist who turned the fortunes of China around. And so says Eric Adams, soon to be Democratic mayor of New York City! Bret Stephens interviewed Adams for his latest Times column and found hizzoner channeling his inner Deng.
There are a lot of interesting Adams quotes and observations in the Stephens column, which Stephens puts in a conservative context because, well, he's a conservative. But the Adams stuff is good:
"[I]n New York, the city that in the 1990s and 2000s led the way in the historic and nationwide reductions in crime, 981 people were shot this year as of Sunday. That includes two women and a 4-year-old girl hit by stray bullets in May in Times Square, in broad daylight.
“This stuff can unravel so quickly,” Adams says, referring to social order. His mission is not to let New York go the way of Portland or San Francisco.
The key is the police. In 2019, multiple videos went viral of police officers offering no response after being doused by hecklers with buckets of water. “When I saw that I said we’re going to lose the city,” he recalls. “When you attack that officer, you didn’t attack that individual. You attacked the symbol of safety.”
Adams graduated from the police academy in 1984, another era of diminished faith in law enforcement, not least among cops themselves. The prevailing attitude, he says, was, “You hold on for 20 years, you get promoted, get your pension, nothing you’re going to do about crime.” He rejected that attitude and made his name in the 1990s as a dissident officer fighting police brutality and racial profiling.
But he also believes that effective policing is the basis for justice, not an enemy of it. Well-intentioned liberals, he says, “have piggybacked off of the appealing, attractive conversation. You know, ‘Black Lives Matter.’ Well, if they matter, damn it, then we should be talking about a 13-year-old kid being assassinated in the Bronx.”
He argues for reversing the state bail reforms that treated some robberies as nonviolent offenses, for bringing back the plainclothes police squad disbanded last year by Bill de Blasio and for using stop-and-frisk (or, as he reminds me, “stop-QUESTION-frisk”) as an essential policing tool, so long as it isn’t being unconstitutionally abused to fill a weekly police quota or harass civilians.
As for abolishing the police: “When I get out of that subway station, I want to see that cop at the top of the stairs.”....
He also recognizes the harm the city does itself with its results-unfriendly bureaucracy.
“How do you have a Small Business Services that’s trying to get restaurants open, but you have the Department of Buildings that takes a year and half to give someone their C-of-O to get inside?” he asks, referring to a certificate of occupancy. “Try opening a hotel: If you can get their sprinkler system inspected in two years, you’re a miracle maker.”
He plans to do for city agencies what the CompStat program did in the 1990s when it took police units out of their respective silos to make them see the larger picture. "
Really, who does care if the cat is black or white, when it's actually catching the mice? Not me and not Eric Adams either. It's a refreshing attitude in an era when sloganeering has frequently substituted for sound policy.

Tuesday, July 20, 2021

If You Don't Think Immigration Is a Serious Political Problem for the Democrats, You Haven't Been Paying Attention

Immigration is back in the news and not in a good way for the Democrats. The excellent Nick Miroff (with Sean Sullivan) has the story at the PosT.

"The huge increase in illegal border crossings that President Biden described as “seasonal” is growing larger despite the summer heat. Americans rate his handling of immigration poorly, polls show. And the president himself worries that Republican attacks on the issue will resonate politically, according to people familiar with his thinking.

When President Barack Obama faced a similar situation, he toughened enforcement, detained families and increased deportations. But under Biden, such measures have become anathema to Democrats who feel they were badly abused by President Donald Trump.
That leaves Biden in a vise, caught between the costly reality of a historic border influx and supporters who erupt in anger when his administration hints at tighter controls....
The cross-pressures are expected to come to a head in the next few weeks as the administration faces critical decisions about how and whether to unwind Title 42, a public health order Trump invoked to swiftly return most border-crossers to Mexico during the pandemic. Immigrant advocates are pressing the White House to fully abandon the policy, but doing so could trigger an even larger border influx — and a bigger political headache.
Federal authorities have logged more than 1.1 million apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico border this fiscal year, after more than 188,000 illegal crossings in June — a 20-year-high — prompting a fresh round of Republican criticism. About one-third of those taken into custody were repeat crossers who had been previously detained by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the agency said.
Nearly six months into his presidency, Biden’s inability to shake off early struggles on immigration is creating growing anxiety for Democrats in swing districts and border areas who face tough congressional elections next year.
“I don’t want to beat up on the administration, but we have to make decisions that are not easy and soft,” said Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Tex.), whose district includes the Rio Grande Valley, the busiest stretch for illegal crossings. “We need to be humane and treat people with dignity, but we have to have orderly process on the southern border.”....
[T]he basic tools of immigration enforcement — detention, deportation and strict bans on who can enter — remain stigmatized among many Democrats, and unacceptable to former activist leaders who now hold key positions in the White House.
As one former U.S. official who worked on Biden’s transition team put it, “We did the positive stuff quickly, but not the deterrence part.”
The official, who maintains close ties to the Biden team, described the president as “super concerned” about the political ramifications of the tumult at the border. “He knows the damage this can do and what a gift this is to Republicans,” said the official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private discussions.
In a recent Washington Post-ABC News poll, 33 percent of survey respondents said they approved of Biden’s handling of immigration while 51 percent disapproved. It was Biden’s worst-rated issue in the survey....
“Biden is a centrist, but he depends on his staff like any other president,” said Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Tex.), who represents a border district and has urged the administration to toughen its approach. When it comes to immigration policy, Cuellar said, “the more ‘open borders’ vision is winning out at the White House.”...
Administration officials...say they will reduce illegal migration by making it easier for temporary workers and immigrants’ relatives to come to the United States legally. They plan to implement a new system to expedite asylum claims. And they hope to expand the use of electronic monitoring, so migrants will not have to stay in detention while awaiting a ruling on their asylum claims.
Critics respond that such moves will do little to reduce illegal crossings as long as migrants who fail to qualify for asylum find it easy to stay in the United States anyway. Immigration arrests and deportations from the American interior are down by more than half under new Biden policies that curb ICE enforcement."
That outlines the situation rather well I think. As I have noted previously, Democrats need to accept the reality of American public opinion and politics that border security is a huge issue that cannot be elided in any attempt to reform the immigration system. Indeed, the most popular part of the Democrats' proposed (and now probably dead) immigration bill was the provision most directly related to border security (technologically enhanced port of entry screening) according to a Morning Consult survey. And public opinion polling over the years has consistently shown overwhelming majorities in favor of more spending and emphasis on border security.
This suggests a serious revamp of the Democratic approach to immigration flows and immigration reform is needed. The public has indeed become more sympathetic to immigrants and immigration, partially as a thermostatic reaction to the practices of the Trump administration. But that does not mean that Democrats can simply be the opposite of Trump on this issue. He was closed; we’re open! He was mean; we’re nice! Any moves toward greater leniency at the border and the creation of legalization regimes for undocumented immigrants raises the possibility of knock-on effects and unintended consequences that would be highly unpopular. How do you prevent people from gaming the system? How do you handle the possibility of surges at the border to take advantage of leniency and legalization regimes? Any immigration reform approach worth its salt must have serious answers to these questions.
America is a very desirable destination and it is simply a fact that many more people want to come here than can possibly be accommodated. Therefore, choices will have to be made about the numbers to be let in. What is, in fact, a desirable level of legal immigration? If Democrats wish it to be higher then they must have an answer for who these people should be. How are slots to be allocated—would the country be served well by moving to more a skill-based system or at least a hybrid that leans in that direction? And if the immigration system is to be more more generous, how are levels of illegal immigration to be controlled? It will not do to make the immigration system more generous, while doing little to control flows of illegal immigration. Most of all, voters want an immigration system that is both reasonably generous and humane and under control. Democrats ignore the “under control” part at their peril.
Those are the political and policy realities of this issue. The Democrats current strategy boils down to hoping that the border situation doesn't get completely out of control and that immigration is not a salient issue in 2022. That's not much of a strategy.