Monday, June 22, 2020

Memo to the Left: Don't Blow It!

I was interested to read this article by Sydney Ember In the New York Times on "Bernie Sanders Predicted Revolution, Just Not This One". It wasn't a particularly good article but it had some interesting material in it on the views of left activists now that the Sanders campaign is over. it included this paragraph:
"Progressives at both the national and grass-roots level are still trying to push Mr. Biden to the left even as he has begun to adopt the language of systemic disruption. His willingness to satisfy their demands — on policing perhaps most urgently but also on issues like climate change and health care — could help determine whether he is successful in the general election."
Of course, this has it exactly backwards. The extent to which Biden satisfies their demands could determine whether he fails this November, not whether he succeeds. There is absolutely no reason for him to adopt these groups' demands, which are generally far less popular than the positions Biden has already adopted. He should remember to ask the question, paraphrasing a 20th century dictator's query about the Pope, "How many armies do these groups have?" The answer is clear; he doesn't need these groups, he needs the people he already has.
What is just as bad is that these groups are stepping on the chances for success of the very causes they espouse. Sheri Berman lucidly explains in this must-read article on Social Europe:
"Just as the Trump presidency has made crystal-clear the role played by the politically polarising, racially-inflammatory tendencies built into the Republican party since the era of Richard Nixon, the left needs to recognise that denigrating compromises and coalitions and shouting down opponents, rather than engaging with and trying to convince them, are incompatible with democracy.
We have seen these tendencies over the last days, as defences and rationalisations of rioting have abounded in sections of the left. And in a widely-reported scene in Minneapolis the mayor, Jacob Frey, a civil-rights lawyer, progressive and second-youngest mayor in the city’s history, gave an impassioned speech in favour of ‘deep seated, structural reform’—only to be surrounded by protesters telling him, inter alia, to ‘get the f*** out of here’, having refused to commit to fully defunding and abolishing the city’s police department.
The demand to ‘defund the police’, which has been central to the protests, is designed to mobilise the already committed and express anger, rather than attract a broad array of citizens to the cause. The goal, of course, is to create a new model of policing—less violent and aggressive, more deeply and organically embedded in communities, more integrally paired with expanded social-service organisations to deal with mental health and poverty-related issues with which cops are not trained to deal.
There is broad support for such reforms, yet if couched as ‘defunding’ or abolishing the police majorities are consistently opposed. If the goal is to win elections and institutionalise major structural reforms, emphasising confusing and confrontational slogans such as ‘defund the police’ is counter-productive. Unless, of course, the real goal is not to win elections and power but rather to ‘make a point’ or mobilise the already discontented—tendencies towards which parts of the left are all too prone and have left it consistently vulnerable to being overwhelmed by a more strategic and focused right.
Now is the time the American left has been waiting for. The protests over recent weeks have been a remarkable manifestation of the power of democracy—citizens from every state and every background have made their voices heard and forced American society to confront problems which it ignored for too long. The protests have also helped turn the tide against a president who represents the greatest threat to progress and democracy our country has experienced in modern times.
But to seize this opportunity the left needs to recognise that in a democracy there are only two ways of achieving your goals: you can compromise with those who disagree with your views or you can convince them that your views are correct. Illiberal behaviour, purity tests and name-calling are antithetical to both. The US is indeed at a critical juncture—the democratic left must recognise this and act accordingly."
In short: don't blow it.
SOCIALEUROPE.EU
Sheri Berman urges the American left not to squander the sea-change in public opinion of recent weeks by only preaching to the converted.

The Bluing of the Hawkeye State

It could happen. Trip Gabriel has a useful report in the Times on political trends there. He notes:
"In the Des Moines Register poll, Mr. Trump led Mr. Biden 44 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, the latest in a wave of national and state polls showing the president’s prospects for re-election at their most precarious all year....
Amid a pandemic that the president seeks to minimize, and widespread anti-police protests after the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Mr. Trump’s approval has slipped five points in Iowa since March, to 45 percent. Only 37 percent approve of the way he has handled the protests. The president retains strong support from evangelical voters and white men. But white working-class women preferred Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump in the Register poll, 53 percent to 35 percent....
Ms. [Theresa] Greenfield, who until recently was president of a commercial real estate company, led Ms. [Joni] Ernst by three points in the Register poll, 46 percent to 43 percent. It is the first time Ms. Ernst, a former state senator and National Guard commander in Iraq, has trailed in a general election survey by the pollster J. Ann Selzer, the most respected in Iowa, since 2014."
The Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape survey also finds small, similarly-sized lead for Biden in Iowa. The survey also shows a big split between white noncollege men and women though it does not find Biden actually head of Trump among white noncollege women.
NYTIMES.COM
Iowa seemed out of reach for Democrats not too long ago. Now, the presidential race appears to be tightening, and Senator Ernst, a Republican, is facing a strong challenge from a political newcomer.

Friday, June 19, 2020

Florida: The Senior Citizen Revolt


Florida, where Biden now has a solid lead (see below) is now the tipping point before the tipping point state, according to 538. That is, Minnesota is now the tipping point state but Florida is right in back of that so to speak, with a slightly bigger Biden lead.
That is amazing. What on earth is going on there? Well, several things are moving against Trump in Florida but the most consequential is what you could call the senior citizen revolt.
In 2016, Trump's victory was built on a wide 20 lead among Florida's 65 and over population, according to States of Change data. This year there's a huge shift against him among this population--22 margin points--so that Biden actually leads Trump among these voters by 2 points (in the Democracy Fund + UCLA survey, 4000 Florida cases since April 1).
Unless Trump can rebuild his Florida lead among these voters he will have a hard time winning the state. Not to mention the Presidency.

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Biden-Trump: It Ain't Just the Margins, It's the Level or The Beauty of Hitting the 50 Percent Mark

Understandably, people focus on the margins in the trial heats and lately they've been very good for Joe Biden, averaging over an 8 point lead in recent polls. But that actually undersells how well Biden has been doing. Because the absolute level at which he's been polling support is a very, very good sign. Put simply, he's hitting 50 percent or higher consistently and that gives him a dominant position in the race.
We can see this in the RCP running average of Biden's support, 50.2 vs. 41.7 for Trump.
And we can see it in the the soon-to-be-published and generally more reliable 538 running average, 50.2 for Biden vs. 42.1 for Trump.
Harry Enten explains why this is so important:
"Most times when we look at polling we talk about margins. For example, former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by a 7 point margin in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out on Sunday. What that can miss, however, is that Biden's close to 50% (49%), while Trump isn't anywhere close (42%) in the poll.
Indeed, if you look at the average of live interview polls released since last Sunday, Biden manages to eclipse 50% (51%). That is, he has a majority for now. This is a key milestone that shouldn't be undersold.
As I've noted in the past, Trump's comeback in 2016 was made considerably easier by the fact that Democrat Hillary Clinton wasn't polling close to 50%. The average live interview poll taken in June 2016 (when Libertarian Gary Johnson was included) had Clinton at a mere 42%. Not a single one of those polls had her even touching 50%. In fact, she never got close in the average of polls during the rest of the campaign.
Biden, meanwhile, reached at least 50% in three live interview polls this past week (ABC News/Washington Post, Monmouth University and NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College).
When Trump closed the gap in the waning days of the 2016 campaign, he had to convince very few Clinton supporters to vote for him. Trump merely had to pick up support from those who were undecided or backing a third party candidate.
Right now, Trump's road will be difficult if not next to impossible to win if he doesn't take back voters who are already with Biden."

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Does Biden Need the "Enthusiastic Support of Black Voters"?

That's the claim of a letter sent to the Biden campaign by 50 or so liberal organizations, who allege he will not get that enthusiastic support unless he embraces a lengthy series of demands included in their letter. These demands include reparations, defunding the police and withdrawing support for investments in community policing.
There are two things wrong with the letter's argument. First, Biden already has sufficient black support to win the election, even though he is currently running a little behind Clinton's 2016 pace. Moreover, recent data suggest that support is firming up (see below). The fact of the matter is that Biden is solidly ahead at the moment because he has reasonable nonwhite support and is running way ahead of Clinton among both white college and noncollege voters. He would benefit from increased black support relative to the current baseline--the more votes and the bigger margin he has, the better--but he does not "need" that to win the election.
Perhaps what the letter authors mean is that Biden cannot afford a catastrophic decline in black support and/or turnout relative to 2016. But that is not what the authors said and there is no evidence at the current time that he is risking that.
And we certainly have no evidence that embracing the demands of the letter would forestall such a decline or even increase black support much beyond where it already is. Much of what they advocate is not only not popular overall but is also not popular among black voters specifically. In contrast, the reforms Biden has already embraced are all wildly popular among black voters
Hopefully, Biden will ignore this letter and concentrate on the broad coalition he has assembled which does not fixing in the ways advocated by the letter writers.

Monday, June 15, 2020

The Deficit: Remember Not to Forget About the People Who Will Remember


Biden, if elected with a Democratic Senate, will have a chance to do some big and necessary things. But he'll also be faced with a predictable obstacle: politicians and pundits who will suddenly wax hysterical about the threat of the deficit and national debt and how it will rob our grandchildren and destroy the economic foundations of the country.
By this I don't just mean the Republicans, who will turn from being unconcerned with the problem to frothing at the mouth as soon as a Democrat gets into office. The Very Serious People on the editorial pages and other "responsible" organs of opinion are still out there. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget lurks in the shadows, ready to pounce once the anti-deficit drumbeat starts.
It is vital to win the budget and macroeconomic argument this time around. It hurt Obama and the Democrats deeply before that they lost it (see Reed Hundt's A Crisis Wasted) and it will hurt Biden and company this time 'round should they lose it again. There is, arguably, no bigger barrier to progressive success in governance.
So be ready for this fight because it's coming. Michael Tomasky reports in a new article in the New York Review of Books:
“Obama and his team’s acquiescence in—indeed, public endorsement of—the turn to austerity in 2010 was absolutely fucking disastrous,” the UC Berkeley economist J. Bradford DeLong, who served in the Clinton administration, told me.
To put substance to his words, Biden will have to defy decades of conventional wisdom on deficits and push for major public investments. “He’s not going to just disregard [the deficit], as, say, Republicans do when they cut taxes,” one of his aides told me. “But he understands the urgency very well, and what the economic costs are to this society that the pandemic is showing us.”
I spoke with an outside adviser who has talked with Biden as part of group conversations about his agenda, and who told me that Biden understands full well everything I laid out above. This person acknowledged the inevitable pressure from deficit hawks, owing to the economic effects of the virus and to Trump’s tax cuts, but said there is a rough consensus within Biden’s circle: “He’s going to inherit a debt-to-GDP ratio of about 115 percent. But if the Democrats let the debt-to-GDP ratio block their agenda, we’re not going to get anywhere.” (A ratio of 115 percent would be the highest on record, just surpassing the ratio at the end of World War II.) The comparison to FDR indicates, the adviser offered, “the gravity of the moment—comparing the Great Depression to now, and how people just keep getting battered by market failures, and how they’re totally uninsulated by an underfunded public sector.”
I know there's lots of other stuff going on right now but do not underestimate how important this struggle will be in the future to everything progressives care about.

NYBOOKS.COM
Joe Biden, by most accounts, has been a different man since the pandemic hit. Last year, he sometimes spoke of his presidency as a return to a pre-Trump era. Now, with unemployment nearing 15 percent and calls for change from protesters becoming more urgent—and with the crisis starkly laying bare ...

Sunday, June 14, 2020

Defund the Police? Can You Say Unpopular? I Think You Can!

Look at this very interesting question from the recent Yahoo News/YouGov poll. People just don't want what's behind door #3--"defund the police and reinvent our approach to public safety". Note particularly the lack of enthusiasm among the black population and Hispanics are the least enthusiastic of all. As a certain ex-President would put it: that dog won't hunt.