Biden Ahead in the Battleground States

A just-released poll by Greenberg Research/Center for Voter Information has Biden ahead of Trump by 4 points in battleground states. This compares to Clinton's 1.4 point loss to Trump in the same states in 2016.

For the purposes of the poll, battleground states included: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin. Probably the most interesting finding from the poll is this (graphic below).

"Biden’s lead is also produced by the growing gap between white working-class women and men.Trump’s 2016 victory was produced by a working-class revolt. Trump looks poised to
continue garnering strong support from working class men, but working class women’s support for Trump has fallen sharply. Women are a majority of the white working class, and Trump won them by 27 points nationally in 2016. In the battleground, Trump will struggle to win them."

https://democracycorps.com/…/rising-stakes-and-electabilit…/

Is Trump Now an Underdog for Re-Election?

Probably. He wasn't in great shape to begin with and the coronavirus, especially its economic effects, will hurt his chances even more. Plus the Democrats now are almost certain to nominate a candidate who, while far from perfect, can appeal to persuadable voters and will present a far more difficult target for the GOP attack machine.

Here's a solid quantitative take from Alan Abramowitz, based on his updated "Time for a Change" Presidential election model. Of course, any model like this should be viewed cautiously, but the logic of Abramowitz' model is sound and has a pretty good track record. Here's his description of the model and analysis:

"With major sectors of the economy grinding to a near-standstill due to the pandemic, many economic forecasters are now predicting that the U.S. will experience a major downturn in economic growth in the current quarter that could continue for at least the next two quarters. Some forecasters are predicting a major recession with the economy shrinking by 5% or more in the second quarter of 2020. That’s significant because, in many election forecasting models, including my own “time for change” model, economic growth in the second quarter is a key predictor of the election results. Models like mine use second quarter GDP growth to measure the state of the economy because GDP is a broad measure of economic activity and the performance of the economy in the second quarter seems to shape opinions of the economy in the fall. So it’s possible that even if the economy recovers later in the year, the most electorally-salient perceptions will nonetheless be formed in the spring and summer.

For the 2020 election, I have modified my time for change model by focusing entirely on elections with a running incumbent. That is because, in these elections, both the incumbent’s approval rating in late June and the growth rate of the economy in the second quarter have much stronger effects than in elections without a running incumbent. I have also modified the model to make the electoral vote, rather than the popular vote, the dependent variable because it is the electoral vote that decides the winner. I unveiled this version of the model last April in the Crystal Ball......

Table 2 presents the conditional forecasts of the electoral vote for President Trump depending on his net approval rating in late June and the growth rate of the U.S. economy during the second quarter. It takes 270 electoral votes to win a presidential election. The results indicate that, despite the huge boost that Trump is predicted to receive as a first-term incumbent, an economic downturn in the second quarter, combined with a net approval rating in negative territory, would very likely doom Trump’s chances of winning a second term. The only scenario here in which Trump would be favored to win a second term would be modest economic growth combined with a small improvement in his net approval rating, which has been stuck in the vicinity of -10 for many months according to the FiveThirtyEight average. The model suggests that a major recession would likely result in an Electoral College landslide for Trump’s Democratic challenger, especially if it is accompanied by a further decline in the president’s approval rating.

Based on the results of presidential elections since World War II with running incumbents, a president with an upside-down approval rating and an economy in recession would have little chance of winning a second term in the White House. If President Trump’s net approval rating remains where it is now or declines further, and if the recession is severe, with real GDP shrinking by three points or more in the second quarter, the result could well be a defeat of landslide proportions."

It is important to emphasize here that Abramowitz' model suggests that Trump is a poor bet for re-election, given second quarter economic contraction, even if his net approval rating does not decline. Thus, even if partisan polarization manages to keep his generally poor approval rating from declining further, he will still be in very bad shape. And if his approval rating does decline significantly--well, he may be out of bullets.

http://centerforpolitics.org/…/a-coronavirus-recession-cou…/

Nuggets from the Florida, Illinois and Arizona "Exit Polls"

There were no conventional exit polls for the March 17 states, Florida, Illinois and Arizona. However, the National Election Pool (NEP), which normally conducts the exit polls, did conduct telephone surveys in these states and administer their standard instrument. In addition, AP VoteCast. which conducts large-scale election surveys now used in lieu of exit polls by many news organizations, fielded surveys as well.

So there is some data to look at. Here are some nuggets I found interesting.

Florida:

1. Biden carried Hispanics 57-31 according to VoteCast (NEP did not report Hispanic results in the state). Among Hispanic subgroups, Biden carried Cubans 57-36, Puerto Ricans 62-33 and other Hispanic 54-34.

2. VoteCast says Sanders carried 18-29 year olds by a comparatively modest 16 points and under 45 by just a point.

3. Both the VoteCast and NEP surveys say Biden crushed Sanders among white noncollege voters, VoteCast by 59-22 and NEP by 63-15

Illinois

1. Sanders carried young voters by a landslide in both surveys. Hispanics, according to VoteCast, went for Sanders 50-39.

2. Both surveys had Biden way ahead among white noncollege voters 59-31 (VoteCast) and 63-32 (NEP).

Arizona

1. Hispanics were very close in both surveys; NEP had Biden ahead by a point and VoteCast had Sanders ahead by 4 points.

2. VoteCast had Sanders way ahead among young voters (NEP did not report the 18-29 year old vote) by 69-15.

3. The NEP survey gave Biden a 30 point advantage among white noncollege voters, while VoteCast had Biden ahead by 16.

Conclusion: Biden has become the white noncollege candidate and now shows much more strength among Latinos. Young voters are by and large sticking with Sanders though the Florida results were much better for Biden among this group.

Food for thought. We shall see what happens next, not so much on the race for the nomination, which is basically settled, but in how Biden can shore up his weak points as move toward the general election. Sanders clearly has a role to play here. Will he play it?

"It Was Already Over, But Now It’s More Over"

That was Nate Silver's judgement on the night, as Biden captured Florida, Illinois and Arizona (and would undoubtedly have taken Ohio as well if they had voted. I think it would be appropriate and highly desirable for Sanders just to drop out at this point. Going on serves no useful purpose; he has raised his issues and bashing Biden more at this point just serves Trump's interests.

John Judis, a Sanders supporter both in 2016 and this year, agrees. But he helpfully puts Sanders role in a broader context, with which I agree. Biden, if he wins, will be a transitional figure in a transitional era. So a Biden victory will be of the highest importance but just a beginning.

"He could prove to be a heroic figure if the country doesn’t descend into chaos. We – and I’d include at least Western Europe — are at a transitional moment in our history, going from a period of market fundamentalism and unfettered globalization to a period where government is going to have to play a very large role in the economy. The Great Recession was the first warning sign that capitalism wasn’t working; now we have the coronavirus, for which we have proven to be unprepared – and not just because of Trump’s incompetence, self-dealing and ignorance. It’s also because we have allowed the market imperatives of private drug companies, medical equipment makers, insurance companies and hospitals too much influence over health care policy.

I would expect two broad alternatives to emerge over the decade, although I would not expect either in pure form to predominate; first, a Republican approach along the lines laid out recently by Senators Marco Rubio and Josh Hawley. They have promoted an industrial policy aimed at reviving American industry, which would also help revive the mid-sized and small towns that were once centers of American prosperous and are now plagued by opioid addiction. They openly attack market fundamentalism. You can read about their approaches in American Affairs and also National Review.

Where they might differ with Democrats is on the urgency of addressing climate change, unions, business regulations, and the generosity of social welfare policy. But this version of Republicanism would be preferable to the laissez-faire policies (except when it comes to subsidies for big business and the rich) promoted by Mitch McConnell and the House Freedom Caucus. Boris Johnson seems to have taken this Rubio-Hawley path in Great Britain.

The other alternative would be what Sanders, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown and, to some extent, Warren have advocated. They would also promote American industry and try to rein in footloose multinationals. They would invest heavily in infrastructure and education. But they would also try to revive the labor movement and adopt measures that would give workers and, in some cases, representatives from local communities influence over what businesses do. They would stress economic democracy, changing the balance of power in private and public decision-making, which is tilted way over on the side of business and the wealthy. They would try to remove healthcare and education from market control. In 2016 and 2020, Sanders pointed the way toward this kind of democratic approach to industrial and social reconstruction. If the U.S. moves in that direction in the future, he will be remembered fondly....

If Biden wins, he will prevent the disaster of a second Trump term: the sheer violence it could unleash in the country, the bilious incompetence of the man, the damage he can do to the courts, the government, the air we breathe. But I suspect Biden will primarily be a placeholder for the future. He’ll put his finger in the dike for four years.

The next generation of Democrats will have to figure out how to build a majority party. They will have to figure out how to make capitalism serve the national interest, and if that meets resistance, as it seems to have done in parts of the healthcare industry, replace private with public ownership and control. If they get a chance to do that, they can thank Biden for getting rid of Trump. But they can also thank Bernie Sanders for pointing the way forward."

That seems like a fair judgement. Sanders would have made a terrible candidate against Trump in my view. But, in a longer view, we may indeed have much to thank him for.

Baring a personal tragedy, Joe Biden will be the nominee. My preference, given the difficulty of holding primaries during the...

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Final Thoughts on the Democratic Primaries

Baring a personal tragedy, Joe Biden will be the nominee. My preference, given the difficulty of holding primaries during the...

What Trump Vs. Biden Looks Like Today

The folks at Decision Desk HQ are pretty level-headed and are generally cautious about assessing trend. But they are currently quite bearish on Trump and the GOP.

"With Sunday’s release of a Wall Street Journal/NBC National poll, we now have a third data point this week showing Joe Biden with a big lead. From a 9 point lead in WSJ/NBC to CNN’s Biden +10 to Quinnipiac’s even more bullish +11, there’s a clear trend line. The LeanTossup average, which includes all polling of the Biden versus Donald Trump race, not just those three, has the race at Biden +8.2% currently, and no matter what electoral college advantage Donald Trump has – as he did in 2016 – he would lose if that popular vote result were to come through. Entering the (incredibly likely, although, not technically guaranteed) general election matchup, the Democrats have to be favored.

If the Democrats were to win by the average’s 8.2%, that would represent a 6.1% swing since the 2016 Presidential Election, enough to swing 7 states, and the election – Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, and Arizona – on a uniform swing. The Democrats need three of those under most constructions of the Electoral College, and such a wide popular vote lead would result in a rebuke to Trump and the GOP.

Now, none of this is to say that Biden can’t blow this lead and lose the election...but to sugarcoat this is a disservice to people – Donald Trump is an underdog to be re-elected.

The state polls don’t show a much different picture – while not as strong for the Democratic challenger, Biden currently leads by 4.8% in Michigan, 3.8% in Pennsylvania, 3.4% in North Carolina, and 5% in Arizona, per Real Clear Politics averages. In addition to those four states – which would be enough for a reasonably robust victory, Trump is only down 0.5% in Florida and tied in Wisconsin – and leading in 3 of the five most recent Wisconsin polls. Even in Texas, where the GOP won the Presidency by 9% last time, is close, with Trump only up 2.6%, and with a CNN poll of the state showing Biden winning by 1%. Even if Texas doesn’t flip – and that appears to be likelier than not, as of today – the GOP having to play defense in the Lone Star State is a disaster – a load of money, effort, and visits that now don’t get to go to Michigan or Florida or other more traditional backgrounds....

For the Republicans, the warning lights are going off – Trump’s in trouble at the top of the ticket, their defensive Senate map is widening, and the Democrats are nominating the moderate option."

Some just-released state polls underscore this assessment. First, two new NBC/Marist polls of Arizona and Ohio.

"In [Arizona], Biden leads Trump by 1 point among registered voters, 47 percent to 46 percent — which is in within the poll’s margin of error.

The president, however, is ahead of Sanders by 3 points, 48 percent to 45 percent.....

And Biden leads the president by 4 points in the Buckeye State, 49 percent to 45 percent, while Sanders is ahead by 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent."

In addition, Monmouth has a new poll of Arizona out, with Biden up 3 points over Trump. While Hispanic support looks about the same as Clinton's in 2016, white college is significantly better (+3 vs. -2) and white noncollege is way better (-11 vs. -27).

These are very good numbers. On to November!

https://decisiondeskhq.com/warning-signs-abound-for-the-gop/

https://www.nbcnews.com/…/nbc-news-marist-polls-biden-holds…

https://www.monmouth.edu/…/docu…/monmouthpoll_az_031620.pdf/

With Sunday’s release of a Wall Street Journal/NBC National poll, we now have a third data point this week showing Joe Biden with a big lead. From a 9 point lead in WSJ/NBC to CNN’s Biden +10 to Quinnipiac’s even more bullish +11, there’s a clear trend line. The LeanTossup average, which inc...

DECISIONDESKHQ.COM

Warning Signs Abound For The GOP - Decision Desk HQ

With Sunday’s release of a Wall Street Journal/NBC National poll, we now have a third data point this week showing Joe Biden with a big lead. From a 9 point lead in WSJ/NBC to CNN’s Biden +10 to Quinnipiac’s even more bullish +11, there’s a clear trend line. The LeanTossup average, which inc...

Next Up: Biden Vs. Trump

I don't see tonight's debate as doing anything to change the trajectory of the nomination contest. Biden was solid and it seems doubtful that Sanders' umpteen-thousandth repetition of his basic talking points on inequality and fighting the the power of the rich will turn the tide.

So Biden it is and it appears likely that he will face a weakened Trump. The coronavirus crisis, unavoidably bad, is simply being made worse by his incompetence. And presidents inevitably get blamed for bad things that happen on their watch, especially if they perform poorly.

And then there's the economy. It's hard to see how the crisis doesn't tank the economy to some degree and Trump'll get blamed for that too. So an unusually weak incumbent is becoming even weaker.

It should be a favorable situation for Biden and his running mate. And who should that running mate be? We now know it'll be a woman. Klobuchar? Harris? Abrams? Warren? Whitmer? Your choice here?

Arizona: The Insurance State

Democrats will rightfully spend considerable effort trying to re-capture Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Of the three, Wisconsin is likely to be the toughest. That's why Democrats should also concentrate on taking Arizona in 2020--a near perfect substitute for losing Wisconsin. Below is data from the Biden-Trump trial heat from the just-released Arizona State University/Latino Decisions poll. Biden leads Trump by 8, which is very promising. Note the white and Latino margins; Latinos are +37 for Biden, matching Clinton's +36 margin from 2016, according to States of Change data.

But among whites Trump is a mere +5, compared to his +16 over Clinton in 2016. That is a number that has to absolutely terrify the Trump campaign. They cannot win with such weak support among white voters.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/…/arizona-no-wonder-trump-d…/

https://latinodecisions.com/…/Univision-CLAPR-ASU-AZ-xtab-M…