Sunday, September 15, 2019

What Do You Mean "We", Woke Person?

Today's woke white liberals see themselves as committed allies of nonwhite voters, seeking to advance their well-being in a white supremacist society. Given this, one would assume that the views of these white liberals on various social and economic issues would be closely aligned with those of the nonwhites they seek to support.
One would think that but one would be wrong. The views of white liberals certainly represent their own preferences and perhaps those of some activist groups and intellectuals they use as reference points. But they do not, in fact, very closely match the expressed preferences of nonwhite voters.
Nowhere is this clearer than with black voters who are simply not as woke as the white liberals who aspire to advance their cause. In the simplest terms, black voters are more conservative on many social issues and more liberal, or at least more focused, on everyday economic issues. Tom Edsall goes a good job rounding up some of the relevant research and data in his most recent Times column. Some of the key parts:
"The African-American electorate has been undergoing a quiet, long-term transformation, moving from the left toward the center on several social and cultural issues, while remaining decisively liberal, even radical, on economic issues, according to a series of studies by prominent African-American scholars.
“There has been a shift in the attitudes of black masses about the extent to which systematic discrimination and prejudice are the primary reasons blacks continue to lag behind whites,” Candis Watts Smith, a political scientist at Penn State, wrote in a paper published in the Journal of Black Studies in 2014, “Shifting From Structural to Individual Attributions of Black Disadvantage: Age, Period and Cohort Effects on Black Explanations of Racial Disparities.”....
Contemporary polling provides evidence of moderation among black Democrats compared with the views of white Democrats. The poll data suggests a reversal of traditional roles. More conservative and more centrist Democratic whites were once the tempering force within party ranks. Now, on some of the most controversial issues currently under debate, African-Americans — who make up an estimated 25 percent of Democratic primary voters — have emerged as a force for more moderate stands as white Democrats have moved sharply left....
While less committed to many of the broad social and cultural issues important to white liberals, black Democrats remain more committed than their white counterparts to progressive stands on economic issues of the type that characterized the New Deal coalition of the last century that also established the Great Society programs of the 1960s like Medicare and Medicaid."
The following data strike me as especially key and underscore how white liberals and blacks tend to have different priorities, despite the claims of white liberals that they struggling mightily against their "privilege".
"Asked to rate the importance to them of jobs and wages, 84 percent of black Democrats said both are “very important,” 20 points more than the 64 percent of white Democrats who said so....
Asked if they “must hear” from candidates about their policies on creating jobs, 39 percent of whites agreed compared with 68 percent of African-Americans. Conversely, 76 percent of white Democrats and 48 percent of black Democrats said they must hear candidates’ proposals to combat climate change."
This suggests that woke white liberals, if they truly want to help the people whose side they say they're on, should listen more to the views of actually-existing nonwhite voters and less to trendy takes on the intrinsic perfidy of the country and all white people.
About this website
NYTIMES.COM
Recent research shows that a crucial bloc of Democrats is at once more moderate and more radical than its counterparts.

Friday, September 13, 2019

The Key Demographic in 2020: White Noncollege Women (and How to Reach Them)

Good advice from David Axelrod on the centrality of white noncollege women to the 2020 election and how to reach them. I estimate they'll be 22-23 percent of voters in 2020. It won't take a very large shift among these voters to fatally undercut Trump's chances of re-election. And the signs of weakening support for the President among these voters is already there. But to take advantage of this, the Democrats have to play it smart.
"Mr. Trump’s serial assaults on the decency and the decorum upon which civil society depends are enraging — and meant to be. It is only natural to respond to his every provocation with righteous indignation.
My advice to the Democratic nominee next year is: Donʼt play....
Mr. Trump was elected to shake things up and challenge the political establishment. And to many of his core supporters, his incendiary dog whistles, bullhorn attacks and nonstop flouting of “political correctness” remain energizing symbols of authenticity.
But polling and focus groups reflect a growing unease among a small but potentially decisive group of voters who sided with Mr. Trump in 2016 but are increasingly turned off by the unremitting nastiness, the gratuitous squabbles and the endless chaos he sows.
Plenty of attention has been paid to the historic shift in suburban areas Mr. Trump narrowly carried in 2016 but that broke decisively with his party last fall. That revolt was led by college-educated white women, who overwhelmingly turned against Republican candidates.
But what should be of even greater concern to Mr. Trump is the potential erosion among the non-college-educated white women he is counting on as a core constituency. Those women gave Mr. Trump a 27-point margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016. Yet in a recent Fox News poll, Mr. Trump was beating former Vice President Joe Biden by just four points in that group.
If I were sitting in the Trump war room, this number, more than any other, would alarm me. He won the presidency by the slimmest of margins in three battleground states. With little place to grow, even a small erosion of support among these women could prove fatal to Mr. Trump’s chances. While they are inclined to many of his positions, the thing that is driving these voters away is Mr. Trump himself.....
Mr. Trump’s impulse is always to create a binary choice, forcing Americans to retreat to tribe. He wants to define the battle around divisive cultural issues that will hem in his supporters, and it would be seductive for Democrats to chase every tweeted rabbit down the hole. The president would welcome a pitched battle over lines of race, ideology and culture.
But while Mr. Trump’s thermonuclear politics may rally both his base and Democrats who slumbered in 2016, it is the paralyzing disorder and anxiety his bilious behavior creates that is a distressing turnoff to voters at the margins who will make the difference.
To win, the Democrats will have to turn Mr. Trump’s negative energy against him without embodying it themselves."
About this website
NYTIMES.COM
The Democratic nominee, whoever it turns out to be, should use the president’s contortions and carrying-on against him.

Thursday, September 12, 2019

OK, So Here's the Plan: We'll Run on the Popular Stuff!

The debate tonight didn't seem like much of a game-changer. But maybe Elizabeth Warren's Social Security proposal, rolled out on the eve of the debate, will actually turn out to be important. It's exactly the kind of idea a Democrat should be running on in the general election against Trump. Social Security: Popular! Taxing the rich: Popular! Increasing and expanding Social Security benefits: Popular! This one could provide just the contrast a Democrat wants with Trump and should be exceptionally appealing to persuadable working class voters.
Let's hope if Warren is the nominee she runs on this and not decriminalizing the border and Medicare for All (whether they want it or not). And if Warren isn't the nominee, whoever it is should take up this idea.
Jonathan Chait:
"Democrats have been racing haphazardly to the left, with Warren often in the lead. Some of their ideas, like moving everybody off employer-sponsored insurance and onto a public plan, are toxic to general-election voters. But some ideas have appeal to the left and to swing voters. This is one of them.
Of all the potential soft spots in the Republican party, Social Security is among the most underrated. George W. Bush’s failed pursuit of a privatization scheme in 2005 was a major cause of his political collapse. Conservatives, seeking to deflect blame from their own ideas onto external forces, preferred to blame his response to Hurricane Katrina for his poor polling. But Bush’s polling was dropping like a stone for months before Katrina struck. By July of that year, his plan to change the system was polling 29–62....
The trauma of the 2016 election has left many Trump critics so skeptical of political fundamentals they have failed to discern some basic political realities that allowed Trump to win in the first place. Trump was not a popular candidate, but his opponent was unpopular, too. He neutralized public distrust of his party’s economic agenda by positioning himself to the left on economics, both in substance and style, as an outsider who would threaten insiders and the rich. His failure to keep this promise is a major reason why his polling has stagnated in the low 40s...
Democrats don’t need to cheat to beat [Trump]. But they do need to stop dreaming up blue-sky notions catering to progressive activists and refocus on some ideas with gut-level appeal to persuadable working-class voters. An extra $200 a month in Social Security is just the stuff."
About this website
NYMAG.COM
Democrats need to get serious about the national emergency that is the 2020 election with some actual popular ideas.

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Yes Indeed, Trump Really Is Quite Vulnerable

In my previous post, I wrote about how the Democrats could absolutely, for sure blow the opportunity to beat Trump if they don't run a smart, relentless, laser-focused campaign with no unforced errors.
'The other side of this is how very vulnerable Trump is, which would make it a great pity to mess this one up. We have a raft of new polling data that testify to that vulnerability. Consider:
* In the new CNN poll, Trump has an approval rating of just 39 percent (and is now running around 41 percent in the 538 running average). His strong disapproval vastly outweighs his strong approval, much more so than for recent incumbents. Even his approval rating on the economy is dropping, from +15 (approval minus disapproval) to only +1 today.
As for his "re-elect number", those who who say he deserves re-election, it is dreadful: just 39 percent of registered voters, compared to 58 percent who say he does not deserve re-election. As Harry Enten notes:
"The percentage of voters who said Obama didn't deserve reelection on this question was usually under 50%. Even at its height, it never got above the mid-50s. For Trump it has never gotten below the high 50s.
The same holds true when you at George W. Bush's reelection ratings. They were usually below 50% at this point in the campaign. They never got above the mid 50s even at their peak.
Perhaps more troubling for the president is these generic questions seem to be matching up with what we're seeing in the ballot test against potential Democratic contenders. As I noted previously, Trump's deficit against them is higher than it's been for any president since World War II."
Note particularly Trump's performance among white noncollege voters, who he probably needs to carry be greater margins than he did in 2016 (+31 points). In the CNN poll, he is at just + 8 among these voters on the re-elect question (deserves minus not deserves).
* in the new Washington Post poll, Biden crushes Trump in a 2020 trial heat. Trump also loses to other possible Democratic candidates:
"The new poll tested Trump against five potential general election challengers, and in four of those cases, the president trails, significantly or modestly. He does worst against former vice president Joe Biden, but also runs well behind Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), and slightly behind Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.). Against South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Trump is numerically behind but the gap is within the range of sampling error.....
Of all the Democrats tested against Trump, Biden currently does the best, aided by significant support from women. He is ahead of the president by 15 points, 55 percent to 40 percent, among registered voters. Among all adults, he is at 54 percent and Trump is at 38 percent."
It really would be a shame to blow this one.

Monday, September 9, 2019

David Leonhardt Throws Down the Gauntlet

And I throw it down with him. Let's hypothesize that it will not be easy to defeat Trump in 2020 (not to mention taking back the Senate). Let's also hypothesize that a second term for Trump will be a huge disaster for the country and the world, making genuine progress on most progressive goals essentially impossible.
If these hypotheses are true--and I sure as hell think they are--one might further hypothesize that Democrats would be obsessively focused on crafting the probability-maximizing strategy for defeating Trump. No unforced errors. No risky position-taking that would push the public far out of its comfort zone.
But one would be wrong about this third hypothesis. Democrats are not, in fact, focusing obsessively on the probability-maximizing strategy of defeating Trump. Oh sure, there are many strategies that could possibly win under the right circumstances, with luck and just the right reactions from the voting public. You can always make a case.
But that's different from the probability-maximizing strategy: the strategy that will make it most likely that Trump with lose if the Democrats run a reasonably competent campaign, have reasonable luck and run on ideas that can reasonably be expected to elicit positive voter reaction.
In a lot of cases, that ain't what we got. Leonhardt:
'You would think that Democrats would be approaching the 2020 campaign with a ruthless sense of purpose. But they’re not, at least not yet. They are not focusing on issues that expose Trump’s many vulnerabilities. They have instead devoted substantial time to wonky subjects that excite some progressive activists — and alienate most American voters....
Over the past two decades, incomes for most Americans have barely grown. Median wealth has declined. Americans are frustrated, and a majority supports a populist agenda: higher taxes on corporations and the rich, expanded government health care and financial aid, a higher minimum wage, even a Green New Deal.
The Democrats are on solid ground, substantively and politically, by pushing all of these issues. They should be casting Trump as a plutocrat in populist’s clothes, who has used the presidency to enrich himself and other wealthy insiders at the expense of hard-working middle-class families. It’s a caricature that has the benefit of truth....
The mistake that Democratic candidates have made is thinking that just because they should activate their progressive id on some issues, they should do so on all issues.
There are two main examples, both of which have received a lot of airtime during the presidential debates. The first is the idea of decriminalizing border crossings, so that the illegal entry into this country would be only a civil violation. Most top Democratic candidates — Cory Booker, Julián Castro, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren — support the idea. If illegal entry weren’t a crime, they say, Trump couldn’t lock people in cages.
Supporters of the idea make intricate, technocratic arguments about how decriminalization won’t make the border less secure. But most voters tune out. They don’t buy the long explanations for why the policy doesn’t mean what it certainly seems to mean: less border enforcement. In an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll, 67 percent of registered voters called decriminalization “a bad idea.”
The second example is a proposal to eliminate private health insurance and require people to have Medicare. Sanders and Warren back it. Again, supporters offer complex arguments about why Americans will love this idea (especially if it’s phrased in just the right way) — and, again, most Americans say no thanks. They’re dealing with enough economic anxiety, without having their health insurance taken away and replaced by something uncertain.
The shame is that both health care and immigration should be Democratic advantages. Most voters recoil at Trump’s racist immigrant-bashing, and most want the option to join Medicare. And if Democrats want to reverse Trump’s policies, they need to beat him, not offer policies, like decriminalization, that would hypothetically constrain him."
Got it? We gotta beat Trump and any strategy/policy proposal has to be evaluated in that light. Will it reduce or increase the probability that Trump will be defeated? Activists that can't plausibly make the case that their proposals will increase that probability should stop pushing them and Democratic candidates should have the courage to start ignoring them.
Nothing else will do. This election is too important for self-indulgent progressive grandstanding.
About this website
NYTIMES.COM
The 2020 election is too important.

Thursday, September 5, 2019

On Wisconsin

There is a reasonable case that Wisconsin could be the tipping point for a Democratic victory in 2020. That is, of the "Rustbelt three" target states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Wisconsin is the toughest challenge for the Democrats Therefore, if Democrats take Wisconsin, they are also likely to take Michigan and Pennsylvania and, through that, the Presidency.
The latest poll out of Wisconsin, the highly respected Marquette Law School poll run by Charles Franklin, has some encouraging news for Democrats. Biden runs ahead of Trump by 9 points, 51-42, while Sanders bests Trump by 4 points and Warren and Harris run even with the President.
It's worth looking at these results a bit more closely, especially why Biden is running so far ahead of Warren (folks may disagree but I consider these two the two likeliest candidates to get the nomination at this point). Biden runs significantly stronger among both white voters (he actually carries them by 5 points) and noncollege-educated voters than Warren, suggesting he is a more appealing candidate to white noncollege voters (the poll does not provide a separate white noncollege break) than Warren.
To get a sense of the significance of this consider the following. If a Democratic candidate could simply replicate Obama's 2012 performance among white noncollege voters in 2020, that candidate, all else equal, would win the state by six-and-a-half points. By comparison, if the Democratic candidate could match 2012 Obama election black turnout, the candidate would win the state, but only by half a percentage point. This gives you a sense of the relative magnitude of two demographic forces in Wisconsin.
Of course, the standard reply to the Biden vs. Warren numbers is that it's too early, it's all name recognition, any Democratic candidate can match Biden's pull with these groups once the electorate gets to know them, etc., etc.
I'm not so sure. I think Josh Marshall has the right of it here:
"Biden’s stronger numbers in general election horse race polls have been open to differing interpretations. One is simply that he’s better known and credentialed by Barack Obama. So name recognition and trust allows a few more millions of voters to opt for him. But presumably that level of familiarity and trust is one less well known Democrats will be able to build up over time.
That theory is certainly right to a degree. The question is how much.
This poll along with other polls has the other, perhaps greater part of the explanation. In a handful of critical Midwestern states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, et al.) he simply runs better against Trump. Why that is we can debate – more ideologically conventional policy positions, Obama, race, gender, Senate experience. But that it is the case doesn’t seem open to much doubt. Those margins in a number of key states are what translates into that relative advantage in the national polls.
Whether this will persist we can’t know. But for now, polls suggest Biden is well positioned to beat Trump in Wisconsin. If he does, if any Democrat does, they are likely the next President."
Marshall stresses--as do I--that he does not speak as a "Biden supporter" but rather as someone who thinks these patterns are important and should not be dismissed. I agree.

Wednesday, September 4, 2019

The Importance of the Rural and Small Town Vote

Mike Tomasky reminds us on The Daily Beast of the importance of the rural and small town vote to Democratic prospects, especially if the economy softens:
"Rural America is hurting big time, and in any recession, it’s bound to be the hardest hit. Farmers are feeling the effects of Trump’s tariffs, but it isn’t just farmers. Opportunity has all but vaporized in a lot of these places. Democrats need to do something about this.
They don’t talk enough about rural and small-town America, and it’s probably because they don’t get many votes there. But they can change that. And if they want to beat Trump, they have to. Yes, turnout among core Democratic groups has to be maximized. That’s a given. Everybody understands that.
But everybody doesn’t understand that very often, the difference between winning an election and losing one is the difference between getting totally swamped in small towns and running competitively there. No Democrat is ever going to win in small towns (with the exception of college towns). Guns and cultural issues will see to that. But the key thing is to get 40 percent there instead of 25....
Whoever becomes the Democratic nominee will need to emulate [Sherrod] Brown. The way to do it is through economics. There should be no compromising on guns or other such issues. That will only alienate the base. And again, the point isn’t to win these areas. It’s just to convince 10 or 15 percent of the voters that you care about them and will try to bring some opportunity back to their towns....
The plans [to help rural areas] are there on paper. But the Democrats also need to learn how to talk country again. The speaker is from San Francisco, the Senate leader from Brooklyn, and the leading candidates for the nomination are from Boston, San Francisco, and Wilmington (okay, but it’s still a city). Nothing against these people or these places. But the party’s identity is almost totally urban. If there is a recession, and if the Democrats want to take full political advantage of Trump’s woes, they’ll need to work to change that a little."
I think Tomasky has this exactly right. The point is, indeed, not to win these areas but simply to reduce your losses, to run at least somewhat competitively. That can make a huge difference in the elections in some very important states and, with the proper approach, it shouldn't even be that hard to do.
One caveat here though. Tomasky makes ti sound more daunting than it is! Rather than running at 40 percent support instead of 25 percent. which sounds like a fairly heavy lift, it is really more like running at 36-37 percent support instead of 32-33 percent support (the situation in 2016). That should be enough to make a real difference.
About this website
THEDAILYBEAST.COM
Democrats aren’t going to win a majority there, but if they can win 40 percent of those voters instead of 25, the path to the White House is wide open.