Thursday, January 17, 2019

100% Renewable Energy Vs. All-of-the-Above Clean Energy

The debate about a Green New Deal (GND) has been launched. It's great that it's getting a lot of attention, but there's a lot of potential for pointless internecine left scuffles about what precisely a GND should consist of.
The most idiotic of these arguments is likely to be over whether the goal should be 100 percent renewable energy or not. This is the stated goal of Ocasio-Cortez's version of the idea and, just recently, of a letter sent to Congress by 626 left-leaning environmental groups. The environmental groups' letter specifically says "any definition of renewable energy must also exclude all combustion-based power generation, nuclear, biomass energy, large scale hydro and waste-to-energy technologies"--in other words, none of that stuff could be included in the energy portfolio they envision.
This seems, to use a technical term, batshit crazy. The goal is to decarbonize right? To replace dirty energy with clean energy and do it fast. It makes sense to entertain any and every way of making that swap--all-of-the-above clean energy, not just renewable energy. Why limit yourself?
Bizarrely this insistence on 100 percent renewables and nothing else tends to come from the very same people who seem to be most panicked about going over the 1.5-2 degrees C global temperature rise limit recommended by the IPCC. If you're so worried about it, shouldn't you be pulling out all the stops to make it happen?
Talk about letting the best be the enemy of the good. The wall of hostility in sectors of the left to nuclear energy makes particularly little sense. The safety problems of nuclear are vastly exaggerated (as David Roberts puts it in the article below "Fears about nuclear power’s safety are generally overblown (I’d live inside a nuclear plant before I’d live next to a coal plant)") The real issues are economics and scalability, but those issues too may have solutions (see the other article linked to below).
Or maybe they don't. In which case, fine, we won't do it. But it would be foolish to rule out a potentially huge source of clean energy simply because environmental groups prefer using renewable energy. Same for all the other methods of producing clean energy the environmental groups want to rule out a priori.
In short, the goal should be de-carbonization, not renewability per se, in which case all-of-the-above clear energy is clearly the right approach. That is, if the goal is truly to stop global warming as quickly as possible.
About this website
VOX.COM|BY DAVID ROBERTS
The smart political move is leaving the question of what counts as clean energy as open as possible.

Here Comes Gen Z

I've written a fair amount about generational replacement and how important that is likely to be. One thing we've lacked is good data on the views of the Millennials' successor generation--called Gen Z in Pew's new report, though I have been referring to them simply as the Post-Millennials.
Millennials are notoriously left-leaning on both social and economic issues and have been voting heavily Democratic, a trend particularly noticeable in the last election. But will Gen Z (which Pew dates from the 1997 birth year) be different--less liberal, less pro-Democratic--than the Millennials? The answer to this question will tell us a lot about the magnitude of future generational effects on American politics.
So far, my sense of limited data has been that, in fact, Gen Z is quite similar to the Millennials in social and economic inclinations. This view is corroborated by Pew's new report, where they survey youth down to age 13 to get a good chunk of Gen Z, not just the folks already in the electorate. They find Gen Z to be very similar indeed to Millennials on issues from attitudes toward race and diversity to views on the role of government. And both generations detest Trump.
To see how important this harmony of views could be going forward, consider the evolving structure of the electorate. The Baby Boomers – a generation that has constituted a larger share of the electorate than any other for more than 30 years – are now being eclipsed by these younger and more diverse generations. By 2020, Millennials and Gen Z will represent 37 percent of eligible voters — far larger than the vaunted Boomers. In fact, if these generations are combined with the younger half of Generation X—whose social and political attitudes are also very similar to Millennials— they will constitute about half of the 2020 electorate. By 2032, these groups will constitute more than two-thirds of the electorate.
The times they are a-changin'.
PEWSOCIALTRENDS.ORG
As Gen Z moves toward adulthood, their views mirror those of Millennials on a range of issues, from Trump’s presidency to the role of government to racial equality. Among Republicans, Gen Z stands out on some key issues.

Trump's Falling Approval Ratings

At this point, there's not much doubt that Trump's approval ratings are falling, not precipitously, but steadily. On trend, he will shortly be below 40 percent in the 538 composite poll tracker, where he hasn't been in quite some time.
Of course, this doesn't mean he's doomed in 2020 or anything like that. Still a long way to go. Bur it's hardly a point in his favor either. Nate Silver's rundown of the data on 538 does a good job of summarizing the various ways in which this trend might play out.
I think Silver has the right of it that the biggest potential bad implication of this trend for Trump isn't so much the rating itself but rather what the current political dynamic may indicate about Trump's strategy for 2020.
"The lesson of the midterms, in my view, was fairly clear: Trump’s base isn’t enough. The 2018 midterms weren’t unique in the scale of Republican losses: losing 40 or 41 House seats is bad, but the president’s party usually does poorly at the midterms. Rather, it’s that these losses came on exceptionally high turnout of about 119 million voters, which is considerably closer to 2016’s presidential year turnout (139 million) than to the previous midterm in 2014 (83 million). Republicans did turn out in huge numbers for the midterms, but the Democratic base — which is larger than the Republican one — turned out also, and independent voters strongly backed Democratic candidates for the House.
Plenty of presidents, including Obama, Clinton and Reagan, recovered from poor midterms to get re-elected. But those presidents typically sought to pivot or “triangulate” toward the center; we don’t know if the political rebound occurs if the pivot doesn’t. Instead, Trump has moved in the opposite direction. Despite some initial attempts at reaching out to the center, such as in passing a criminal justice bill in December and issuing trial balloons about an infrastructure package, Trump’s strategy of shutting down the government to insist on a border wall was aimed at placating his critics on the right, such as Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter, and members of the House Freedom Caucus.
Maybe Trump took some of the wrong lessons from 2016. Trump may mythologize 2016 as an election in which he was brought into the White House on the strength of his base, but that isn’t necessarily why he won. And even if it was, trying to duplicate the strategy might not work again...
[P]erhaps 2018 is a better model for 2020 than 2016. In the midterms, voting closely tracked Trump’s approval ratings, and he paid the price for his unpopularity. According to the exit poll, midterm voters disapproved of Trump’s performance by a net of 9 percentage points. Not coincidentally, Republicans also lost the popular vote for the House by 9 percentage points.
There’s plenty of time for Trump’s numbers to improve, but for now, they’re getting worse. So while the shutdown’s consequences may not last into 2020, it has been another step in the wrong direction at a moment when presidents have usually pivoted to the center."
Of course, I guess it's possible that the current dynamic may change and Trump will start getting credit for standing firm on the wall. But the latest data suggest this is very unlikely indeed. Check out the data below from the latest Pew poll and how few people both support the wall and would not want to see the government re-opened with getting one.

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

Maybe Trump Will Finally Get Tired of Winning!

The latest CNN poll finds him tanking among white noncollege voters, the very folks who tend to be his staunchest supporters and who--in Trump's theory, if we can dignify his bizarre mix of gut instinct and reality show street smarts by the word "theory"--were supposed to be utterly delighted to have him shut down the government to get the border wall.
It doesn't seem to be working:
"During the longest government shutdown in US history, President Donald Trump has been losing support among those who may be his strongest supporters -- white Americans who don't have college degrees.
Among this group, only 45% said they approved of the job Trump is doing as President, according to a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS. That is the lowest level of support among this subgroup by 1 percentage point in CNN's surveys and a dip from a poll conducted in early December, before the partial shutdown, when 54% of whites without college degrees approved of his job as President and 39% disapproved.
The dip is notable since among whites who hold college degrees, Trump's ratings are largely unchanged in the last month and remain sharply negative -- 64% disapprove and 32% approve."
As always, I'd like to see more data on this trend but these are certainly very interesting--and potentially important--findings.
About this website
CNN.COM
During the longest government shutdown in US history, President Donald Trump has been losing support among those who may be his strongest supporters -- white Americans who don't have college degrees.

Monday, January 14, 2019

Pinker Vs. Critics Vs. Pinker

Steven Pinker put out a book, Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress, about a year ago that caused a bit of a stir. His data-based case for tremendous progress in the human condition and the relation of that progress to enlightenment values of reason, science, knowledge, universalism and so on is one I'm broadly in sympathy with.
But not everyone is. Pinker received quite a bit of pushback from various quarters and he has taken the opportunity to respond to the most frequent criticisms in a long essay on Quillette. I recommend it. Pinker is a fine polemicist and he does a good job responding in a reasonable, fact-based way to the litany of criticisms.
He also notes at one point that his is not alone in making the case for an improving world. Other folks have looked at the same data and come to the same conclusions including, well, yours truly:
"It’s not just me. In the year since EN went to press, five other books have drawn similar conclusions about the state of the world: Gregg Easterbrook’s It’s Better Than It Looks, Bobby Duffy’s The Perils of Perception, Hans and Ola Rosling and Anna Rosling Rönnlund’s Factfulness, Michael Cohen and Micah Zenko’s Clear and Present Safety, and Ruy Teixeira’s The Optimistic Leftist (so much for that conservative/neoliberal/right-wing conspiracy)."
Here are the criticisms he responds to; read the essay for his detailed responses.
* You got the Enlightenment wrong. There were many Enlightenments, not just one. The Enlightenment thinkers were not all scientific humanists: some were men of faith, and some were racists. Wasn’t Rousseau a part of the Enlightenment? Shouldn’t Marx be counted as an Enlightenment thinker?
* The Enlightenment is not worthy of celebration. It gave the world racism, slavery, imperialism, and genocide.
* How can you say that we should stop worrying and that everything will turn out okay? What about plastics in the ocean? What about opioids? What about school shootings? What about incarceration? What about social media? What about Donald Trump?
* All those numbers showing that the world has been getting better must have been cherry-picked.
* Looking at numbers on human well-being is amoral and callous and insensitive. What do you say to those people who are suffering?
* How do you explain Donald Trump? And Brexit? And authoritarian populism? Don’t they spell the end of the Enlightenment and the reversal of progress?
* How do you explain the growing epidemic of despair, depression, loneliness, mental illness, and suicide in the most advanced liberal societies?
* The Enlightenment will be killed off by its own creations, artificial intelligence and social media.
* Why were you so mean to Nietzsche?
QUILLETTE.COM
You wouldn’t think that a defense of reason, science, and humanism would be particularly controversial in an era in which those ideals would seem to need all the help they can get. But in the words of a colleague, “You’ve made people’s heads explode!” Many people who have written to me abo...

Sunday, January 13, 2019

Trump, the Shutdown and 2020

We don't know when the government shutdown over Trump's border wall will end. But one thing we do know: unless the political dynamic around the shutdown changes dramatically, Trump is probably hurting his bid for re-election.
Consider the facts, as laid out in two recent pieces by Nate Cohn for the New York Times and by Ron Brownstein for the Atlantic.
Cohn:
"There has been little polling since the government shutdown began last month, but what there is indicates that voters oppose a border wall, blame the president for the shutdown, believe the shutdown will have adverse consequences and don’t believe the government should be shut down over the wall.
The wall has consistently been unpopular, with voters opposed by around a 20-point margin over months of national surveys. That makes it even less popular than the president himself....
It’s hard to see how the issue can be used to help him win re-election. Midterm exit poll data, election results, voter file data and pre-election polls indicate that the president’s approval rating is below 50 percent in states worth at least 317 electoral votes (270 are needed to win)....
Data from the Fox News Voter Analysis of the midterms, a new competitor to the traditional exit polls, indicated that a majority of voters opposed the wall in states worth nearly 400 electoral votes, including in several states where the president’s approval rating was above water in the poll, like Ohio and Florida....[T]he wall [also] isn’t popular in Michigan..Pennsylvania [or Wisconsin], important battleground states...
Tying the [wall] to an unpopular shutdown seems particularly unlikely to help and, historically, voters tend to drift against the policy preferences of the president’s party.... [T]here is not much reason to think that the base, alone, is enough for the president to win re-election in a one-on-one race against a viable Democratic candidate. This could change. It has before. But with the midterms over, this is now the central political challenge facing the president. By that measure, it’s hard to see where a shutdown over the wall fits in."
Brownstein finds it equally difficult to see anything but a negative payoff for Trump in the wall-shutdown dynamic. He notes particularly the way in which this dynamic tends to push wall opponents, a significant number of whom actually Trump in 2016, away from the GOP or third party voting and towards the Democrats.
"After two years of arguing for the wall as president, Trump has shown no ability to expand its popularity. In 10 national polls conducted during his presidency, Quinnipiac University has never found support for the wall higher than 43 percent....
]T]here’s evidence that the voters hostile to the wall, and to many other aspects of Trump’s tenure, are less willing to give him the benefit of the doubt now than they were in 2016....Trump’s position among wall opponents has eroded dramatically....
In the [2016] exit poll, 18 percent of the college-educated whites who opposed the wall voted for Trump anyway, according to figures provided by Edison Research. But now, far fewer express support for Trump in general. In the latest Quinnipiac poll, just 3 percent of these voters approved of Trump’s job performance, according to data provided by Quinnipiac. Ninety-two percent disapproved.
Likewise, just over one-fourth of non-college-educated whites who opposed the wall still voted for Trump in 2016. But in the latest Quinnipiac survey, only 9 percent of these whites approved of Trump’s performance, while 83 percent disapproved. In all, fully 88 percent of Americans who oppose the wall say they disapprove of Trump’s performance as president.
Approval ratings correlate closely with the reelection vote for incumbent presidents....Trump’s relentless effort to cement the loyalty and stoke the outrage of his strongest supporters, compounded by his volatile behavior in office, is building a wall between him and the ambivalent voters who provided him critical support in 2016 (or at least withheld it from Clinton by splintering to third-party candidates).....
Trump’s monomania on the border wall shows that he remains fixated on the priorities and resentments of his core coalition. But even a 30-foot barrier probably wouldn’t protect him in 2020 if he allows the waves of discontent to continue rising among the majority of Americans who don’t consider themselves part of that ardent club."
If you like, go back and overlay these data on the Cook electoral college ratings I posted about yesterday. It's not a pretty picture for Mr. Trump. Getting to 270 in 2020 was never going to be easy for him. He's now making it even harder.

Saturday, January 12, 2019

Early Electoral College Ratings

Well, since Democratic Presidential candidates are declaring right and left, it's time to thinking about how the 2020 electoral college might shape up. Cook Political Report is out with their first state by state ratings and they're quite interesting.
They put five states into their toss up column, the "Rustbelt three" of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin plus Arizona and Florida.
There are 21 states with a total of 232 EVs in lean to solid Democratic categories.They put four states into lean Democratic, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nevada. And two states are put into the bluer column of likely Democratic: Colorado and Virginia.
It's worth dwelling on the designation for Virginia. It really has been a rapid shift for the state from reliably Republican to its ever-deepening shade of blue. Along these lines, Catalist's analysis of Virginia's 2018 Senate contest and comparison to other recent elections is worth looking at. They find:
"Kaine’s reelection to the US Senate in this still-purple state was never really close, with estimates from pollsters and pundits eventually converging on a predicted outcome of “Safe D” early in the election cycle. Kaine made good on that prediction, beating Republican challenger Corey Stewart by a margin of 16 points. Beyond statewide success in 2018, down-ballot Democrats flipped 3-out-of-4 targeted Red to Blue congressional districts (VA-02, VA-07, and VA-10, with VA-05 being the only near miss).
Kaine’s reelection, combined with additional Democratic victories across the state in 2018, illustrate three important dynamics about the current state of play in Virginia:
* Demographics have been moving the state from purple to blue
* Improvements in support among suburban voters have accelerated this movement — statewide and at the congressional level
* And the potential to establish progressive inroads with historically challenging groups such as rural voters and whites without a college degree."
More on the Rustbelt three soon.
COOKPOLITICAL.COM
Here it is. Our first pass at the 2020 Electoral College ratings. These ratings take into consideration the 2016 and 2018 results as well as what we’ve learned about the political coalitions that currently make-up the Trump and Democratic bases. Obviously, what we don’t know — the political an...